We're running a test of an estimation method to see whether it helps form accurate beliefs. Afterwards, we'll talk about the method and its implications. This experiment was designed with input from the Center for Applied Rationality, and they're eager to see the outcome. Please come if you're able; the bigger our sample size, the better our data will be.

Cambridge/Boston-area Less Wrong meetups are every Sunday at 2pm in MIT's building 66 at 25 Ames St, room 156. Room number subject to change based on availability; signs will be posted with the actual room number.

Our default schedule is as follows:

—Phase 1: Arrival, greetings, unstructured conversation.

—Phase 2: The headline event. This starts promptly at 2:30, and lasts 30-60 minutes.

—Phase 3: Further discussion. We'll explore the ideas raised in phase 2, often in smaller groups.

—Phase 4: Dinner. It's about a ten minute walk to the usual restaurant.