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Modeling AI milestones to adjust AGI arrival estimates?

by Ozyrus
11th Jul 2019
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Modeling AI milestones to adjust AGI arrival estimates?
4Michaël Trazzi
3moridinamael
2Pablo
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Michaël Trazzi

Jul 11, 2019

40

You can find AGI predictions, including Starcraft forecasts, in "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts". Projects for having "all forecasts on AGI in one place" include ai.metaculus.com & foretold.io.

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[-]moridinamael6y30

Looks like all of the "games"-oriented predictions that were supposed to happen in the first 25 years have already happened within 3.

edit: Misread the charts. It's more like the predictions within the first ~10 years have already been accomplished, plus or minus a few.

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Pablo

Jul 31, 2019

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You may want to check out the Metaculus AI milestones timeline.

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Is there a roadmap of major milestones AI researchers have to achieve through before AGI is here? I feel like this would be beneficial to update on AGI arrival timelines and adjust actions accordingly. Lately, a lot of things that can be classified as a milestone have been achieved -- GLUE benchmark, StarCraft II, DOTA 2 etc. Should we adjust our estimates on AGI arrival based on those or are they moving according to plan? It would be cool to have a place with all forecasts on AGI in one place.