Very comprehensive. I can think of a few more:
Transcendant AI: AGI discovers exotic physics beyond human comprehension and ways to transcend physical reality, and largely leaves us alone in our plane of reality. Kind of magical thinking, but this is the canonical explanation for AI friendliness in Iain M. Banks' Culture series, with the Sublime.
Matrix AI: We're in a Simulation of "the peak of humanity" and the laws of the Simulation prevent AGI.
Pious AI: AGI adopts one of the major human religions and locks in its values. Vast amounts of superintelligent cognition is devoted to philosophy, apologetics, and rationalization. It could either proclaim itself to be some kind of Messiah, or merely God's most loyal and capable servant on Earth and beyond.
That last one's a little Reddit-atheist of me but faith is a very common but underappreciated human value around here. Perhaps to the dismay of atheists, a failed or naïve attempt at CEV converges on religion and we get Pious AI. I know enough otherwise-intelligent and competent adults who believe in young Earth creationism to suspect even superintelligences are not immune to the same confirmation bias and belief in belief.
Thanks, good suggestions! I've added the following:
Pious AI: Humanity builds AGI and adopts one of the major religions. Vast amounts of superintelligent cognition is devoted to philosophy, theology, and prayer. AGI proclaims itself to be some kind of Messiah, or merely God's most loyal and capable servant on Earth and beyond.
I think Transcendant AI is close enough to Far far away AI, where in this case far far away means another plane of physics. Similarly, I think your Matrix AI scenario is captured in:
Theoretical Impossibility: For some reason or another... (read more)
Introduction
I have compiled a list of possible future scenarios. I hope this list is useful in two ways:
This list is just a brainstorm, and I encourage readers to write any missing but probable futures in the comments. I will add any scenarios that do not substantially overlap with existing items and which I subjectively estimate as having at least a 0.01% probability of happening to the list (with attribution).
I have divided the possible futures into the following categories:
Futures without AGI
Because we prevent building it
Because we go extinct in another way
Because we take a different path
Because of other factors
Futures with AGI
In which we die
In which we survive
And things are somewhat normal
But we're very different humans
And the universe gets optimized
What important future scenarios am I missing? Which of these futures are most likely?
Inspiration
Some of the futures are inspired by FLI AGI Aftermath Scenarios and AGI Futures by Roon.