Paradoxically, I don't think the market is very relevant actually for the size of the infrastructure buildout in AI. I do not think Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft are investing in AI firms for a return on investment. They are forced to invest as they face an existential threat from OpenAI and Anthropic and each other. Their safe monopoly profits are over. It's innovate in AI or die. This means 100% of their profits will continue to go into AI infrastructure until they feel like they can't die anymore. Which will only happen if all their competitors are dead, or once the entire AI sphere has settled into some monopoly-cartel esque equilibrium

If the market implodes debt may become harder or impossible to raise, but the profits of all these firms collectively is probably about a trillion dollars. So we'll be investing a trillion dollars in capex for a while.