Review
Re: 1: Do Dane's Guestimate models ever yield >1 microdoom estimates for solo research projects? That sounds like a lot.
This seems like great advice, thanks!
I'd be interested in an example for what "a believable story in which this project reduces AI x-risk" looks like, if Dane (or someone else) would like to share.
I recently spoke with Dane Sherburn about some of the most valuable things he learned as a SERI-MATS scholar.
Here are 11 heuristics he uses to prioritize between research projects: