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What's Causing the Longest Government Shutdown in US History? — LessWrong

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What's Causing the Longest Government Shutdown in US History?

10th Nov 2025

5 min read

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This post explores the causes of the longest government shutdown in US history, attempting to present the most objective view of the situation.

TL;DR: The government shutdown - now the longest in history (at time of writing this post) - stems from a standoff over expiring ACA health-care subsidies. Democrats want them extended; Republicans refuse without reforms. Millions face halted paychecks and services as both sides dig in.

What's Happening

The U.S. government has been shut down since October 1st. Funding for federal agencies lapsed after Congress could not agree on a spending bill, leaving government workers without paychecks and millions of Americans facing loss of essential services. This shutdown has become the longest in U.S. history, with the previous record of 35 days being set during Donald Trump’s first term in 2018-2019.

The shutdown matters because it has real consequences for federal workers, families, and businesses that depend on government services, while also fueling confusion about why it happened. With so much speculation and partisan noise, it’s important to clarify the actual reasons behind the impasse and provide an accurate understanding of what is driving the political and fiscal disagreement.

Breakdown

All claims linked in this section are >90% True on The Record at time of publishing.

The enhanced premium tax credits that help Americans afford health care coverage are scheduled to expire

The enhanced premium tax credits were first enacted via the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) of 2021 to improve health coverage affordability and smooth the tax cliff in the ACA's original subsidy schedule.
The ACA credits were set to expire at the end of 2025. It isn't "new" that the premiums for 2026 were gonna be astronomical.
Fetterman acknowledged that the ACA tax credits were "designed by the Democratic Party to expire" at the end of the year and were not something "taken from" by the Republicans.

The US government shutdown is rooted in fundamentally different positions on the enhanced ACA tax credits, which are scheduled to expire.

Congress is deadlocked over a short-term funding bill. Republicans want it to keep current budget levels, while Democrats seek more health care funding and provisions to limit Trump's ability to freeze or redirect approved funds.
Democratic leadership and many members have made extending enhanced ACA subsidies a central demand in budget negotiations.
The loss of enhanced federal subsidies, which were put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic and come in the form of tax credits, are expected to leave many people unable to buy health insurance.
Republicans are reluctant to fund the health care program, also known as Obamacare, without reforms, but negotiating a compromise with Democrats is expected to take time, if a deal can be reached at all.
The most recent CBO and Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) analysis estimates that permanently enacting the expanded premium tax credit (PTC) structure would increase federal deficits by $349.8 billion.

Republicans control Congress but lack a filibuster-proof majority, giving Democrats leverage in negotiations over measures like ACA subsidies and government funding

Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. But in the Senate - or upper chamber - they are short of the 60 votes needed to pass the spending bill, which gives opposition Democrats some negotiating power.
The Senate usually needs 60 votes to advance a bill like a continuing resolution. With Republicans holding 53 seats, at least 7 Democrats must vote yes in order for the government to resume.
Trump wants the Senate to drop the filibuster rule so Republicans can end the shutdown with a simple majority vote.

Trump has shown limited urgency in ending the 2025 shutdown, prioritizing Republican demands and accusing Democrats of intransigence. While both sides blame each other, there is no clear evidence of Trump personally leading bipartisan outreach.

President Trump has shown limited urgency to end the shutdown begun on October 1, 2025, using it to restructure federal agencies, cut programs, and advance broader efforts to remake the federal bureaucracy.
President Donald Trump has refused to negotiate with Democrats over their demands to salvage expiring health insurance subsidies until they agree to reopen the government.
The president threatened on social media on Tuesday to deny food subsidy payments for 42 million Americans until the end of the government shutdown, in apparent defiance of a court order.

The prolonged shutdown inflicts significant hardship and economic damage that may eventually force a resolution

The shutdown has suspended the work of at least 600,000 workers since Oct. 1. Many more employees are required to report to work without pay until funding is restored.
About 13,000 air traffic controllers, who are government employees, have been working without pay due to the shutdown.
In a shutdown, government offices continue essential work, but tasks deemed nonessential come to a halt, paychecks stop and many workers are furloughed until Congress passes new funding.
Thousands of federal workers have already missed paycheques, and there are growing fears of increased impacts to air travel across the us as air traffic controllers and airport staff work without pay.
Economists estimate that the shutdown will trim between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points off annual growth in economic output for each week it drags on.

Speculation

These claims, at time of publishing, all appear to be speculative.

"The entire basis for the government shutdown is that the Trump administration does not want to send hundreds of billions of dollars to fund illegal immigrants in the states"

Truth Score: Mostly False (25% True)

Explanation: Immigration isn't the shutdown's main act. While the Trump administration has spotlighted immigration in its rhetoric, the real legislative battle centers on healthcare spending and deficit issues. The 25% truth score highlights that immigration funding is a minor player in this drama, with the primary conflict rooted in healthcare and budgetary concerns.

"Chuck Schumer and Bernie Sanders are the top recipients of the money that health insurance companies are pouring into campaigns and lobbying for extension of the COVID credits"

— SKDoubleDub33

Truth Score: False (7% True)

Explanation: Neither Schumer nor Sanders are insurance favorites. There is no evidence from FEC data or OpenSecrets.org showing Chuck Schumer or Bernie Sanders as top recipients of health insurance company contributions. Both advocate for health care reform but not due to insurance firm backing. The 7% truth score confirms the claim is largely false, with minimal truth elements.

"President Trump has repurposed money to fund military salaries during the government shutdown"

— Luke Broadwater

Truth Score: Mostly False (15% True)

Explanation: Trump's funding flip is fiction. No evidence supports the claim that President Trump repurposed funds for military salaries during the 2025 shutdown. Military pay is typically safeguarded by existing laws, not unilateral presidential decisions. The 15% truth score underscores the lack of factual basis, highlighting the claim's largely false nature with minimal truth.

"If Democrats were to agree with the Republican proposal to pass the "clean" resolution, it would mean that 15 million Americans would be thrown off of the healthcare that they currently have"

— Bernie Sanders

Truth Score: Mostly False (15% True)

Explanation: Millions? Yes. Fifteen? Not quite. The claim that 15 million would lose coverage due to a 'clean' CR is exaggerated. Authoritative estimates suggest closer to 8 million, mainly from Medicaid changes and tax credit issues. The 15% truth score confirms the impact is significant but not as severe as claimed, highlighting the overstatement in the numbers.

"With their reckless 35-day government shutdown, the Democrats are intentionally hurting American families, workers, and businesses to fight for free healthcare for illegal aliens and to appease their radical left-wing base"

Truth Score: Mostly False (17% True)

Explanation: The shutdown wasn't about free healthcare. The 2025 federal shutdown stemmed from partisan budget disputes, not a Democratic push for free healthcare for undocumented immigrants. No evidence supports this claim as central to Democratic proposals. The 17% truth score confirms the claim is largely false, with scant elements of truth.

You can add your own truth score to any of these claims if you have something to add to the conversation.

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