Discussion article for the meetup : Rescheduled: Chicago Calibration Game
This Saturday, we'll be playing a personal calibration game. From the LW wiki: "One person reads the question aloud, and everyone writes down their 50% and 90% confidence intervals. For example, if you’re 50% sure that 20% - 40% of the world’s countries are landlocked, write that down as your 50% confidence interval." After everyone has written down confidence intervals, the correct answer is revealed. If we run out of questions, we can spend the rest of the time discussing PredictionBook, idea futures, and similar.