Kurzweil's predictions' individual scores

by Stuart_Armstrong1 min read7th May 2020No comments


World Modeling

In my post on Kurzweil's 1999 predictions for 2019, I wrote:

The (anonymised) data can be found here, and I encourage people to download and assess it themselves.

But it is, of course, not trivial for everyone to download a spreadsheet and wade through it, and you might want something in between a 5-number summary and a full spreadsheet.

So I decided to post a more detailed summary here, that should give people an easier overview. This table will show the actual prediction, the mean (ie how true or false the predictor found it), the standard deviation (how much spread there was in predictions) and the proportion of "3", ie "Cannot Decide" answers. This data is also available as a tab-separated file here.