(Cross-posted from Twitter, and therefore optimized somewhat for simplicity.)
Recent discussions of AI x-risk in places like Twitter tend to focus on "are you in the Rightthink Tribe, or the Wrongthink Tribe?". Are you a doomer? An accelerationist? An EA? A techno-optimist?
I'm pretty sure these discussions would go way better if the discussion looked less like that. More concrete claims, details, and probabilities; fewer vague slogans and vague expressions of certainty.
I obviously left out lots of other important and interesting questions, but I think this is OK as a conversation-starter. I've encouraged Twitter regulars to share their own versions of this image, or similar images, as a nucleus for conversation (and a way to directly clarify what people's actual views are, beyond the stereotypes and slogans).
If you want to see a filled-out example, here's mine (though you may not want to look if you prefer to give answers that are less anchored): Google Drawing link.
I originally saw this on Twitter, and posted mine in response, but I feel in-depth discussion is probably more productive here, so I appreciate you cross-posting this :)
One thing I'm interested in is your position on technical research vs. policy work. At least for me, seeing someone from an organisation focused on technical alignment research claim that "technical research is ~90% likely to be [less] useful" is a little worrying. Is this position mainly driven by timeline worries ("we don't have long, so the most important thing is getting governments to slow capabilities") or by a general pessimism about the field of technical alignment research panning out at all?
(Cross-posted from Twitter, and therefore optimized somewhat for simplicity.)
Recent discussions of AI x-risk in places like Twitter tend to focus on "are you in the Rightthink Tribe, or the Wrongthink Tribe?". Are you a doomer? An accelerationist? An EA? A techno-optimist?
I'm pretty sure these discussions would go way better if the discussion looked less like that. More concrete claims, details, and probabilities; fewer vague slogans and vague expressions of certainty.
As a start, I made this image (also available as a Google Drawing):
(Added: Web version made by Tetraspace.)
I obviously left out lots of other important and interesting questions, but I think this is OK as a conversation-starter. I've encouraged Twitter regulars to share their own versions of this image, or similar images, as a nucleus for conversation (and a way to directly clarify what people's actual views are, beyond the stereotypes and slogans).
If you want to see a filled-out example, here's mine (though you may not want to look if you prefer to give answers that are less anchored): Google Drawing link.