This is a followup to my previous article, Sleeping Beauty Resolved? Some objected to the solution I presented (building on Radford Neal's analysis) on the grounds that it runs afoul of a Thirder betting argument:
If Beauty uses anything other than a probability of exactly 1/3 for Heads, she will accept certain bets she should not, and reject others she should accept.
Alas, there is an alternative Halfer betting argument that makes the same claim, but replacing 1/3 with
Introduction
This is a followup to my previous article, Sleeping Beauty Resolved? Some objected to the solution I presented (building on Radford Neal's analysis) on the grounds that it runs afoul of a Thirder betting argument:
Alas, there is an alternative Halfer betting argument that makes the same claim, but replacing 1/3 with