Yep, good catch ;)

I *do* put a non-trivial weight on models where the empirical claim is true, and not just out of epistemic humility. But overall, I'm epistemically humble enough these days to think it's not reasonable to say "nearly inevitable" if you integrate out epistemic uncertainty.

But maybe it's enough to have reasons for putting non-trivial weight on the empirical claim to be able to answer the other questions meaningfully?

Or are you just trying to see if anyone can defeat the epistemic humility "trump card"?



AI Alignment Open Thread August 2019

by habryka 1 min read4th Aug 201996 comments

37

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Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.

This is an experiment in having an Open Thread dedicated to AI Alignment discussion, hopefully enabling researchers and upcoming researchers to ask small questions they are confused about, share very early stage ideas and have lower-key discussions.