I posted this one to the EA Forum, because it seemed a bit more relevant there. I think that LessWrong users will also find it interesting.

TLDR Example

An EA donor puts up a $50k prize for distribution in 2022. In 2022, several projects that have started since 2019 apply. Their net EA impacts are estimated, and these estimates (vs. the total value estimate of all submissions) are eventually used to give them corresponding proportional amounts of the $50k.

Back in 2019, several projects sell “rights” to their prize, and these get sold around. It’s expected that $1M in estimated total value will apply, so the market value of the claim of every $10 of estimated impact is ​$0.50. One project sets up an estimation service where they publicly estimate the eventual evaluation of every project, to help make the market more efficient, with the goal of themselves getting part of the prize.

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