There’s a new report on the AI Impacts web site, that focuses on reanalyzing the data from the 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI (originally written up in Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI).

The report, by Tom Adamczewski, introduces several improvements over the earlier analysis. Even better, it comes with a brand new open-source codebase, also by Tom, that anyone can use to perform their own analyses on the data.

I found the report illuminating, and I recommend it to anyone interested in the tradeoffs and options available in eliciting, analyzing, and presenting quantitative estimates from experts. Plus there are many excellent new graphs!