I thought let's take these figures and chart this forwards. How many agents will we have by let's say 2030 or 2032? Given that through 2027 there is enough compute to run tens of millions of Fable 5 models, i'm assuming there are currently around 10 million opus 5.5 level agents in the world right now running 24/7 with all the available compute. It could be one OOM less, but that won't matter much for the conclusion.
Taking these things together we arrive at around a 10x growth in the total AI population every year. Which means by 2032 we'll have 11.82 trillion of Opus 5.5 level models, and by my estimations that would be around 2-3 billion of 2032 level models.
Inspired by this: https://epoch.ai/publications/estimating-the-agent-population
I thought let's take these figures and chart this forwards. How many agents will we have by let's say 2030 or 2032? Given that through 2027 there is enough compute to run tens of millions of Fable 5 models, i'm assuming there are currently around 10 million opus 5.5 level agents in the world right now running 24/7 with all the available compute. It could be one OOM less, but that won't matter much for the conclusion.
From Epoch as well we know that total compute has been growing at around 3.4x a year
And the latest estimate we have of algorithmic efficiency is around 3x per year
Taking these things together we arrive at around a 10x growth in the total AI population every year. Which means by 2032 we'll have 11.82 trillion of Opus 5.5 level models, and by my estimations that would be around 2-3 billion of 2032 level models.