How many passengers were exposed? Capacity of 2670, I haven't seen (and haven't looked that hard) how many actual passengers and crew were aboard when the quarantine started. So maybe over 1/4 of exposed became positive, 6% of that positive become serious, and 10% of that fatal.

Assuming it escapes quarantine and most of us are exposed at some point, that leads to an estimate of 0.0015 (call it 1/6 of 1%) of fatality. Recent annual deaths are 7.7 per 1000, so best guess is this adds 20%, assuming all deaths happen in the first year and any mitigations we come up with don't change the rate by much. I don't want to downplay 11.5 million deaths, but I also don't want to overreact (and in fact, I don't know how to overreact usefully).

I'd love to know how many of the serious cases have remaining disability. Duration and impact of survival cases could easily be the differences between unpleasantness and disruption that doubles the death rate, and societal collapse that kills 10x or more as the disease directly.

Jimrandomh's Shortform

by jimrandomh 1 min read4th Jul 201964 comments

This post is a container for my short-form writing. See this post for meta-level discussion about shortform as an upcoming site feature.