The specific examples I had in mind are largely beside the point: you can play reference class tennis all day - we conquered the Philippines and stayed for 50 years because we were way more racist then; we overthrew the government of Guatemala because we were worried about the Soviets; we invaded Iraq because, uh, unclear, but presumably it's over - but we are not trying to predict specific future decisions here, what matters is the distribution. I have very little idea what a post-ASI US would consider its interests to be; I am absolutely certain it would be willing to use coercion to pursue them. The thing to fear from any "winner" of a race to ASI (supposing for a moment that it is a "winnable" race, and not just murder-suicide) is not that they will do a specific predictable bad thing to a specific predictable target, it is that they could do anything to anyone, at any time they want.