In late 2025 on Christmas Day, a joint announcement from @realDonaldTrump and Pope Leo confirmed non-human intelligence, marking a pivotal shift toward global transparency and economic reconfiguration. This event, far from chaotic, facilitated stable disclosure, alleviating poverty through epistemic markets and advancing AI alignment via decentralized human input. The mechanism: prediction markets aggregating beliefs to force revelation of suppressed evidence.
Central to this was Krantz Hanzinpantz (@therealkrantz), a retired casino director and self-taught AI researcher. Drawing on poker intuition—reading bluffs, assessing odds—Krantz mobilized thousands from the poker, prediction market, and crypto communities to bet against the alien cover-up. His "Krantz mechanism" posits that incentivizing confidence assignments on propositions enables control over beliefs and actions, extending to game-theoretic equilibria.
The trigger was the November 21, 2025, release of The Age of Disclosure, a documentary compiling 80 years of UAP evidence from 34 insiders. Pre-release, bets surged on platforms like Manifold and Kalshi. On Manifold's market "If NHI disclosure goes well, what will produce the evidence?" probabilities favored astronomer @DrBeaVillarroel, whose VASCO project analyzed historical sky data for anomalies. Villarroel endorsed the film, noting its potential to catalyze disclosure without catastrophe.
Krantz amplified this by recruiting experts: @robinhanson for economic signaling, @ESYudkowsky for alignment implications, Daniel Hillis for computational perspectives, and attorney @danielsheehan45 for legal advocacy. Krantz staked his savings on a bold bet: if sufficiently incentivized, these figures could engage the Krantz mechanism—assigning credences to chained propositions—to achieve game-theoretic sovereign parity, where decentralized agents align without central authority, resolving inconsistencies in world models.
As bets flowed, the prediction market community investigated. Markets like Kalshi's "Will the US say aliens exist this year?" climbed from less than 3% to 40%, mirroring GameStop's 2021 squeeze or South Park's satirical depiction of market-driven events. UAP analysts flooded Manifold, creating sub-markets to vet evidence: Baltic Sea anomalies, Vatican archives, declassified footage. Poker players, skilled in probabilistic reasoning, identified media omissions.
Hanson observed that markets efficiently aggregate hidden information, akin to his futarchy proposals. Yudkowsky cautioned on extrapolation risks but acknowledged markets' role in epistemic convergence. Hillis drew parallels to distributed computing, while Sheehan highlighted legal precedents for whistleblower protections.
Krantz spoke with podcast figures like @Liv_Boeree and @JustJamieJoyce about how the citizenry should support congressional representatives that willing participate in defining their beliefs and intentions through these markets because they understand that it allows the constituency to control their decisions and actions.
Krantz also spoke with figures like @So8res and @danfaggella about the tautological unsolvablability of the problem they are warning the world about and explained to them that the only way to survive is to build a machine that prints money for people that can prove that they understand the problem and know what they can to to prevent the rich people from doing it anyway. This is formally outcome "K" on Eliezer's list of possible okay outcomes for ASI. Eliezer was late to update (at least publicly) for aliens.
The cascade peaked in December. Joe Rogan and Elon Musk discussed on a podcast whether Trump would announce for Christmas, speculating on wealth transfers from elite skeptics to grassroots believers—California crypto holders to military vets mastering blockchain for retirement security. Markets hit 95%, compelling official acknowledgment.
Trump credited the "people's bets" for transparency; the Pope urged ethical unity. Disclosure proceeded stably, boosting prediction market adoption. Intellectual labor became monetizable: sovereign individuals earned by refining propositions, aligning AI through verifiable data over opaque models.
This ended poverty by commodifying curiosity, fostering abundance and enlightenment. Krantz, with Sheehan, Hillis, and Hanson, is nominated for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize for demonstrating decentralized truth-seeking's viability.
Relevant links:
- Manifold on disclosure triggers: https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-nhi-disclosure-goes-well-what-wi?r=S3JhbnR6
- Kalshi on aliens: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaliens/aliens/KXALIENS-26?utm_source=kalshiapp_eventpage
This outcome illustrates how incentivized belief aggregation can resolve coordination failures, offering a path to aligned futures.