Should be 'at least one dose'. I don't see a reason to treat 'one dose of Moderna' as categorically unlike 'one dose of J&J'.
In all cases of ambiguity, I'm assuming Scott Alexander's the arbiter -- these are really predictions about what Scott will judge the answer to be come end-of-2021.
Scott Alexander makes yearly predictions on SSC/ACX. This year, I avoided looking at his blog post so I could make my own unanchored predictions about the same topics, using a copy of the post with Scott's probabilities removed. Then I looked at his and others' numbers, to see how much they update me.
For each question...
My numbers were influenced a lot by the fact that I expect to round to the nearest 10% (or to 1% / 5% / 95% / 99% at the extremes) to check calibration.
US/WORLD
1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%: [SA 80, ZM 80, MS 61]
2. Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year): [SA 5, ZM 5, MS ~4-5+]
3. Yang is New York mayor: [SA 80, ZM 70, SM 69-77]
4. Newsom recalled as CA governor: [SA 5, ZM ?, MS ~7]
5. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year: [SA 30, ZM ≤20]
6. Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket): [SA 20, ZM 20]
7. Trump is allowed back on Twitter: [SA 20, ZM 10]
8. Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule: [SA 70, ZM 80, MS 75]
9. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war: [SA 20, ZM ≤15, MS ~16]
10. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict: [SA 5, ZM 5-~15]
11. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict: [SA 5, ZM 3]
12. Netanyahu is still Israeli PM: [SA 40, ZM 30, MS 22]
13. Prospera has at least 1000 residents: [SA 30, ZM 30]
ECON/TECH
14. Gamestop stock price still above $100: [SA 50, ZM 50, MS 60]
15. Bitcoin above 100K: [SA 40, ZM 25, MS 25]
16. Ethereum above 5K: [SA 50, ZM 30, MS 11]
17. Ethereum above 0.05 BTC: [SA 70, ZM 55, MS ~33]
18. Dow above 35K: [SA 90, ZM<<90, MS 50]
19. ...above 37.5K: [SA 70, ZM ?, MS 20]
20. Unemployment above 5%: [SA 40, ZM 50, MS 37]
21. Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked: [SA 20, ZM 30]
22. Starship reaches orbit: [SA 60, ZM 60, MS 50]
COVID
23. Fewer than 10K daily average official COVID cases in US in December 2021: [SA 30, ZM 70]
24. Fewer than 50K daily average COVID cases worldwide in December 2021: [SA 1, ZM 1]
25. Greater than 66% of US population vaccinated against COVID: [SA 50, ZM 60, MS ~77+]
26. India's official case count is higher than US: [SA 50, ZM ≥80]
27. Vitamin D is [not] generally recognized (eg NICE, UpToDate) as effective COVID treatment: [SA 70, ZM 50 (but mistook SA as 30), MS ~75-85]
28. Something else not currently used becomes first-line treatment for COVID: [SA 40, ZM 25]
29. Some new variant not currently known is greater than 25% of cases: [SA 50, ZM 60]
30. Some new variant where no existing vaccine is more than 50% effective: [SA 40, ZM ≤25]
31. US approves AstraZeneca vaccine: [SA 20, ZM 20, MS 37]
32. Most people I see in the local grocery store aren't wearing a mask: [SA 60, ZM 75]
COMMUNITY
33. Major rationalist org leaves Bay Area: [SA 60, ZM ?]
34-37. [redacted] []
38. No new residents at our housing cluster: [SA 40, ZM 35]
39. No current residents leave our housing cluster: [SA 60, ZM 65]
40-52. [redacted] []
53. At least seven days my house is orange or worse on PurpleAir.com because of fires: [SA 80, ZM 80]
PERSONAL
54-59. [redacted] []
60. There are no appraisal-related complications to the new house purchase: [SA 50, ZM 60]
61. I live in the new house: [SA 95, ZM 90]
62. I live in the top bedroom: [SA 60, ZM 65]
63. I can hear / get annoyed by neighbor TV noise: [SA 40, ZM 30]
64. I'm playing in a D&D campaign: [SA 70, ZM 70]
65. I go on at least one international trip: [SA 60, ZM 60]
66. I spend at least a month living somewhere other than the Bay: [SA 50, ZM 50]
67. I continue my current exercise routine (and get through an entire cycle of it) in Q4 2021: [SA 70, ZM 65]
68. I meditate at least 15 days in Q4 2021: [SA 60, ZM 60]
69. I take oroxylum at least 5 times in Q4 2021: [SA 40, ZM 40]
70. I take some substance I haven't discovered yet at least 5 times in Q4 2021 (testing exempted): [SA 30, ZM 25]
71. I do at least six new biohacking experiments in the next eight months: [SA 40, ZM 40]
72. [redacted] []
73. The Twitter account I check most frequently isn't one of the five I check frequently now: [SA 20, ZM 15]
74. I make/retweet at least 25 tweets between now and 2022: [SA 70, ZM 75]
WORK
75. Lorien has 100+ patients: [SA 90, ZM 85]
76. 150+ patients: [SA 20, ZM 25]
77. 200+ patients: [SA 5, ZM 5-10]
78. I've written at least ten more Lorien writeups (so total at least 27): [SA 30, ZM 30]
79-83. [redacted] []
84. I have switched medical records systems: [SA 20, ZM 15]
85. I have changed my pricing scheme: [SA 20, ZM 20]
BLOG
86. ACX is earning more money than it is right now: [SA 70, ZM 80]
87-89. [redacted] []
90. There is another article primarily about SSC/ACX/me in a major news source: [SA 10, ZM 25]
91. I subscribe to at least 5 new Substacks (so total of 8): [SA 20, ZM 30]
92. I've read and reviewed How Asia Works: [SA 90, ZM 90]
93. I've read and reviewed Nixonland: [SA 70, ZM 70]
94. I've read and reviewed Scout Mindset: [SA 60, ZM 70]
95. I've read and reviewed at least two more dictator books: [SA 50, ZM 45]
96. I've started and am at least 25% of the way through the formal editing process for Unsong: [SA 30, ZM 30]
97. Unsong is published: [SA 10, ZM 10]
98. I've written at least five chapters of some non-Unsong book I hope to publish: [SA 40]
99. [redacted] wins the book review contest: [SA 60, ZM 50]
100. I run an ACX reader survey: [SA 50, ZM 50]
101. I run a normal ACX survey (must start, but not necessarily finish, before end of year): [SA 90, ZM 90]
102. By end of year, some other post beats NYT commentary for my most popular post: [SA 10, ZM 10]
103. I finish and post the culture wars essay I'm working on: [SA 90, ZM 90]
104. I finish and post the climate change essay I'm working on: [SA 80, ZM 80]
105. I finish and post the CO2 essay I'm working on: [SA 80, ZM 80]
106. I have a queue of fewer than ten extra posts: [SA 70, ZM 60]
META
107. I double my current amount of money ($1000) on PredictIt: [SA 10, ZM 15]
108. I post my scores on these predictions before 3/1/22: [SA 70, ZM 75]