Summary: Make predictions on all the listed predictions before the end of June 2018, and if your predictions are the best you'll win $200 after they all settle in January.
This is happening! Motivations discussed in the earlier post here, I'm running a prediction contest for the rationalist and EA communities. There are 20 predictions- seven about world politics over the next year, five about technology, six about the upcoming year for EA organisations, and two about rationalist websites, for a mix of topics with a lean towards things it would be helpful to know about. They were inspired by a variety of suggested sources- particularly Socratic Form Microblogging's world politics predictions, Slate Star Codex's predictions for the year and the SSC community's reddit thread for predictions, and a handful of EA organisation blog posts about the past and their future plans.
How to Enter
Each entry in the list below goes to a prediction on PredictionBook. Using a new or existing PredictionBook account, assign probability to each of them sometime before the end of June (12:00 midday 1st July UTC being the enforced deadline, to accommodate variation in timezone). Then submit a contact email and your PredictionBook account name through this form, and you're done!
You can assign probability more than once, and I'll take whichever probability was made most recently before the deadline, so you can feel safe to make predictions early and just update them later if new information arrives (both will impact on your PredictionBook calibration calculation, but that doesn't feed into the contest). In particular, you can do this even after submitting to the form- I won't go collect assigned probabilities until after the deadline.
Tip: If predictions are daunting, you don't need to do it all in one go- you can make a handful of predictions now and then throughout the two months and they'll all be done by the end. Maybe just do one and see after if you feel like doing more.
When It Ends
All the predictions settle by the 1st of January 2019. At some point prior to the end of January 2019, I'll ensure all the predictions are settled accurately, calculate the log score for each entrant, make a new post announcing the results and listing the scores and ranks of the entrants (by their PredictionBook account- contact email remains private), and send an email to the contact email address of the winner.
I'll provide them with a random string and ask them to post it as a comment on a particular one of the predictions using their PredictionBook account, to verify account ownership, and then ask for them to provide me with a PayPal account to send the prize to (I might be able to do other payment methods, can discuss at the time).
Without further ado: the predictions:
The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation).
The expected value of entering obviously depends on how many people do enter, which is something I'm curious to see- it could be only a couple of people or it could be tens of people (larger numbers seem unlikely, but would be great... from my perspective as a non-entrant, anyway). I'm considering this first run an experiment, burning $200 to try the idea out. If it works well, I'd hope to run a similar one next year, maybe incorporating any feedback I get on the concept here. If not, we try things.
Questions, feedback, ideas, etc, are very welcome.