Here are some of mine. These are very rough and I could probably be persuaded on many of them to move them significantly in some direction.
By 2030 (and after January 1st, 2020),
No high-level AGI, defined as a single system that can perform nearly every economically valuable task more cheaply than a human, will have been created. 94%
No robot hand will be able to manipulate a Rubik's cube as well as a top human. 80%
No state will secede from the US. 95%
No language model will write a book without substantial aid, that ends up on the New York Times bestseller list. 97%
No pandemic will kill >50 million people. 93%
Neither Puerto Rico or DC will be recognized as states. 80%
Tradititional religion will continue to decline in the West, as measured by surveys that track engagement. 85%
Bryan Caplan will lose a bet. 75%
No US President will utter the words "Existential risk" in public during their term as president. 65%
No human will have stepped foot on Mars. 50%
At least one company sells nearly fully autonomous cars, defined as cars that can autonomously perform nearly all tasks that normal drivers accomplish. 80%
Robin Hanson will disagree with the statement, "The rate of automation increased substantially during the 2020s, compared to prior decades." 85%
Experts will recognize that top computers can reliably beat humans at narrow language benchmarks, such as those on https://super.gluebenchmark.com/. 90%
Kurzweil will lose his bet on Longbets (http://longbets.org/1/). 55%
There will be no convincing evidence of contact from extraterrestrials. 99%
Jeff Bezos will be unseated as the richest person in the world. 70%
Robust mouse rejuvenation, defined as a mouse being rejuvenated so that it lives 2500 days, will not have been demonstrated. 85%
If a survey is performed, most people in the United States will say that curing aging is undesirable. 85%
There will be another economic recession in the United States. 70%
World GDP will be higher than it was in 2019. 97%
No one will have won a Nobel Prize in Physics for their work on string theory. 80%
No war larger than the Syrian Civil War by death count, according to a reputable organization, will have occurred. 65%
Donald Trump will not be convicted of high crimes and misdemeanors in his first term as president. 95%
Donald Trump will serve his entire first term as president. 92%
Donald Trump will win re-election. 55%
Roe v Wade will not be overturned. 70%
No proof that P = NP. 98%
No proof that P != NP. 90%
I think you might have an inflated sense of how hard it is to get on the NYT bestseller list. Just go a little bit viral for one week and you’re done. https://www.vox.com/culture/2017/9/13/16257084/bestseller-lists-explained
Inspired by the 2010 prediction thread, I would like to propose this as a thread for people to write in their predictions for the next decade, when practical with probabilities attached.