Inspired by the 2010 prediction thread, I would like to propose this as a thread for people to write in their predictions for the next decade, when practical with probabilities attached.
Here are some of mine. These are very rough and I could probably be persuaded on many of them to move them significantly in some direction.
By 2030 (and after January 1st, 2020),No high-level AGI, defined as a single system that can perform nearly every economically valuable task more cheaply than a human, will have been created. 94%
No robot hand will be able to manipulate a Rubik's cube as well as a top human. 80%
No state will secede from the US. 95%
No language model will write a book without substantial aid, that ends up on the New York Times bestseller list. 97%
No pandemic will kill >50 million people. 93%
Neither Puerto Rico or DC will be recognized as states. 80%Tradititional religion will continue to decline in the West, as measured by surveys that track engagement. 85%Bryan Caplan will lose a bet. 75%No US President will utter the words "Existential risk" in public during their term as president. 65%No human will have stepped foot on Mars. 50%At least one company sells nearly fully autonomous cars, defined as cars that can autonomously perform nearly all tasks that normal drivers accomplish. 80%Robin Hanson will disagree with the statement, "The rate of ... (read more)
I'd also encourage you to link your predictions to Foretold/Metaculus/other prediction aggregator questions, though only if you write your prediction in the thread as well to prevent link rot.
As a Schelling point, you can use this Foretold community which I made specifically for this thread.
Sorted approximately by strength:
The UK will leave the European Union. (95%)
Industrial / financial consolidation will continue instead of reversing, and the 'superstar cities' phenomenon will be stronger in 2030 than 2020. (90%)
The 'higher education bubble' will burst. (80%) This feels mostly like a "you'll know it when you see it" thing, but clear evidence would be a substantial decrease in the fraction of Americans going to college, or a significant decline in the wage premium for "any college diploma" over a high school diploma (while perhaps some diplo
I predict that like 2010, a majority of these predictions will be overconfident.
I realize these are all super high-level and vague.
Usual disclaimers apply: probabilities are not exact betting odds, I try to give quantitive assessments wherever I can but many predictions are too vague to quantify etc. If I am still alive in 2030 I will try to give my subjective assessment to what degree I agree with the predictions.
Geopolitical 1. a China will become #1 economy in the coming decade, but will experience continued economic slowdown.
2. Taiwan put under siege by China (i) economically 80% (ii) militarily 50%conditional on (ii) the US will back down 90%conditional on the US not backing down... (read more)
Is anyone accepting bets on their predictions?
Using a reasonable calibration method*, the set of predictions made in this thread will receive a better score than the set of those in the previous thread from 10 years ago (80%)
Nonetheless, lowering each confidence stated by a relative 10% (i.e. 70% to 63% etc.) will yield better total calibration (60%)
* I don't know the math for this, but I'm assuming there is one that inputs a set of predictions and their truth values and outputs some number, such that the number measures calibration and doesn't predictably increase or decrease with mo... (read more)
As with last decade, I'm most confident about boring things, though less optimistic than I'd like to be.
Fewer than 1 billion people (combatants + civilians) will die in wars in the 2020s: 95%
The United States of America will still exist under its current Constitution (with or without new Amendments) and with all of its current states (with or without new states) as of 1/1/30: 93%
Fewer than 10 million people (combatants + civilians) will die in wars in the 2020s: 85%
The median rent per unit in the United States will increase faster than inflation ... (read more)
The human population will be more than 8 billion, and the population of India will reach 1.5 billion. 90%
India's GDP would rise up to 5 trillion dollars. 70%
India will cease to be a secular state, and communal violence will become more common. 50%
Russia's GDP will be less than 2 trillion dollars. 60%
No human being would be living on another celestial object (Moon, another planet or asteroid). 80%
USA would have less than 1000 troops in Afghanistan. 80%
A new civil war or high-level insurgency will break out in Syria. 50%
Israel would not have vacate... (read more)
A few days late, but I finally filled out my big spreadsheet of predictions. Anyone else is welcome to make a new sheet in it and add their own on the same questions!
1) The global multilateral political and economic institutions fail and relationships return to more bi-lateral and regional based systems largely replaces it. Not that something like the UN disappears only that it merely serves as a location for discussion but not seen (which is clearly is not even now) any type of global government with any authority over the member states. 70%
2) A second global financial crisis of larger scale than 2007-2009 period. 50%
3) North Korea recognized as a nuclear state. (20 - 30%). Resulting in the effective abandonment of th... (read more)