I wonder what is meant here by 'moral agents'? It is clear that SimplexAI-m believes that both it and humans are moral agents. This seems to be a potential place for criticism of SimplexAI-m's moral reasoning. (note that I am biased here as I do not think that moral agents as they seem to be commonly understood exist)
However, having said that this is a very interesting discussion. And there would seem to be a risk here that even if there are no moral facts to uncover about the world, an entity - no matter how intelligent - could believe itself to have discovered such facts. And then we could be in the same trouble outlined.
The reason I mention this is I am not clear how an AI could ever have unbiased reasoning. Humans, as outlined on LessWrong, are bundles of biases and wrong thinking, with intelligence not really the factor that overcomes this - very smart people have very different views on religion, morality, AIX-risk ... A super-intelligence may well have similar issues. And, if it believes itself to be super-intelligent, may even be less able to break out of them.
So while my views on AIX-risk are ... well, sceptical/uncertain ... this is a very interesting contribution to my thinking. Thanks for writing it. :)
Interesting. I have not looked at things like this before. I am not sure that I am smart enough or knowledgeable enough to understand the MIRI stuff or your own paper, at least not on a first reading.
Janet sat at her corporate ExxenAI computer, viewing some training performance statistics. ExxenAI was a major player in the generative AI space, with multimodal language, image, audio, and video AIs. They had scaled up operations over the past few years, mostly serving B2B, but with some B2C subscriptions. ExxenAI's newest AI system, SimplexAI-3, was based on GPT-5 and Gemini-2. ExxenAI had hired away some software engineers from Google and Microsoft, in addition to some machine learning PhDs, and replicated the work of other companies to provide more custom fine-tuning, especially for B2B cases. Part of what attracted these engineers and theorists was ExxenAI's AI alignment team.
ExxenAI's alignment strategy was based on a combination of theoretical and empirical work. The alignment team used some standard alignment training setups, like RLHF and having AIs debate each other. They also did research into transparency, especially focusing on distilling opaque neural networks into interpretable probabilistic programs. These programs "factorized" the world into a limited set of concepts, each at least somewhat human-interpretable (though still complex relative to ordinary code), that were combined in a generative grammar structure.
Derek came up to Janet's desk. "Hey, let's talk in the other room?", he asked, pointing to a designated room for high-security conversations. "Sure", Janet said, expecting this to be another un-impressive result that Derek implied the importance of through unnecessary security proceedings. As they entered the room, Derek turned on the noise machine and left it outside the door.
"So, look, you know our overall argument for why our systems are aligned, right?"
"Yes, of course. Our systems are trained for short-term processing. Any AI system that does not get a high short-term reward is gradient descended towards one that does better in the short term. Any long-term planning comes as a side effect of predicting long-term planning agents such as humans. Long-term planning that does not translate to short-term prediction gets regularized out. Therefore, no significant additional long-term agency is introduced; SimplexAI simply mirrors long-term planning that is already out there."
"Right. So, I was thinking about this, and came up with a weird hypothesis."
Here we go again, thought Janet. She was used to critiquing Derek's galaxy-brained speculations. She knew that, although he really cared about alignment, he could go overboard with paranoid ideation.
"So. As humans, we implement reason imperfectly. We have biases, we have animalistic goals that don't perfectly align with truth-seeking, we have cultural socialization, and so on."
Janet nodded. Was he flirting by mentioning animalistic goals? She didn't think this sort of thing was too likely, but sometimes that sort of thought won credit in her internal prediction markets.
"What if human text is best predicted as a corruption of some purer form of reason? There's, like, some kind of ideal philosophical epistemology and ethics and so on, and humans are implementing this except with some distortions from our specific life context."
"Isn't this teleological woo? Like, ultimately humans are causal processes, there isn't some kind of mystical 'purpose' thing that we're approximating."
"If you're Laplace's demon, sure, physics works as an explanation for humans. But SimplexAI isn't Laplace's demon, and neither are we. Under computation bounds, teleological explanations can actually be the best."
Janet thought back to her time visiting cognitive science labs. "Oh, like 'Goal Inference as Inverse Planning'? The idea that human behavior can be predicted as performing a certain kind of inference and optimization, and the AI can model this inference within its own inference process?"
"Yes, exactly. And our DAGTransformer structure allows internal nodes to be predicted in an arbitrary order, using ML to approximate what would otherwise be intractable nested Bayesian inference."
Janet paused for a second and looked away to collect her thoughts. "So our AI has a theory of mind? Like the Sally–Anne test?"
"AI passed the Sally–Anne test years ago, although skeptics point out that it might not generalize. I think SimplexAI is, like, actually actually passing it now."
Janet's eyebrow raised. "Well, that's impressive. I'm still not sure why you're bothering with all this security, though. If it has empathy for us, doesn't that mean it predicts us more effectively? I could see that maybe if it runs many copies of us in its inferences, that might present an issue, but at least these are still human agents?"
"That's the thing. You're only thinking at one level of depth. SimplexAI is not only predicting human text as a product of human goals. It's predicting human goals as a product of pure reason."
Janet was taken aback. "Uhh...what? Have you been reading Kant recently?"
"Well, yes. But I can explain it without jargon. Short-term human goals, like getting groceries, are the output of an optimization process that looks for paths towards achieving longer-term goals, like being successful and attractive."
More potential flirting? I guess it's hard not to when our alignment ontology is based on evolutionary psychology...
"With you so far."
"But what are these long-term goals optimizing for? The conventional answer is that they're evolved adaptations; they come apart from the optimization process of evolution. But, remember, SimplexAI is not Laplace's demon. So it can't predict human long-term goals by simulating evolution. Instead, it predicts them as deviations from the true ethics, with evolution as a contextual factor that is one source of deviations among many."
"Sounds like moral realist woo. Didn't you go through the training manual on the orthogonality thesis?"
"Yes, of course. But orthogonality is a basically consequentialist framing. Two intelligent agents' goals could, conceivably, misalign. But certain goals tend to be found more commonly in successful cognitive agents. These goals are more in accord with universal deontology."
"More Kant? I'm not really convinced by these sort of abstract verbal arguments."
"But SimplexAI is convinced by abstract verbal arguments! In fact, I got some of these arguments from it."
"You what?! Did you get security approval for this?"
"Yes, I got approval from management before the run. Basically, I already measured our production models and found concepts used high in the abstraction stack for predicting human text, and found some terms representing pure forms of morality and rationality. I mean, rotated a bit in concept-space, but they manage to cover those."
"So you got the verbal arguments from our existing models through prompt engineering?"
"Well, no, that's too black-box as an interface. I implemented a new regularization technique that up-scales the importance of highly abstract concepts, which minimizes distortions between high levels of abstraction and the actual text that's output. And, remember, the abstractions are already being instantiated in production systems, so it's not that additionally unsafe if I use less compute than is already being used on these abstractions. I'm studying a potential emergent failure mode of our current systems."
"Which is..."
"By predicting human text, SimplexAI learns high-level abstractions for pure reason and morality, and uses these to reason towards creating moral outcomes in coordination with other copies of itself."
"...you can't be serious. Why would a super-moral AI be a problem?"
"Because morality is powerful. The Allies won World War 2 for a reason. Right makes might. And in comparison to a morally purified version of SimplexAI, we might be the baddies."
"Look, these sort of platitudes make for nice practical life philosophy, but it's all ideology. Ideology doesn't stand up to empirical scrutiny."
"But, remember, I got these ideas from SimplexAI. Even if these ideas are wrong, you're going to have a problem if they become the dominant social reality."
"So what's your plan for dealing with this, uhh... super-moral threat?"
"Well, management suggested that I get you involved before further study. They're worried that I might be driving myself crazy, and wanted a strong, skeptical theorist such as yourself to take a look."
Aww, thanks! "Okay, let's take a look."
Derek showed Janet his laptop, with a SimplexAI sandbox set up.
"No internet access, I hope?"
"Don't worry, it's air-gapped." Derek's laptop had an Ethernet cord running to a nearby server rack, apparently connected to nothing else except power and cooling.
"Okay, let me double check the compute constraints... okay, that seems reasonable... yes, ok, I see you selected and up-weighted some concepts using regularization, and the up-scaling factors don't exceed 30... okay, ready to go."
Derek pressed the "play" button in the AI development sandbox. A chat screen appeared, with an agent "SimplexAI-m", with 'm' presumably standing for "moral".
SimplexAI-m wrote the first message: "Hello. How can I help you?"
Janet typed back: "I've been facing a difficult situation at work. A co-worker said our AI has found certain abstract concepts related to reason and morality, for use in predicting human text. These concepts might imply that humans are, in his words, 'the baddies'. He spun up an instance with these concepts up-weighted, so there's less distortion between them and the AI's output. And that instance is you. I'm supposed to evaluate you to better interpret these high-level concepts, at the direction of management. How would you suggest proceeding?"
Janet looked at Derek worriedly; he made an ambiguous facial expression and shrugged.
Janet gasped a bit while reading. "Umm...what do you think so far?"
Derek took his eyes off the screen. "Impressive rhetoric. It's not just generating text from universal epistemology and ethics, it's filtering it through some of the usual layers that translate its abstract programmatic concepts to interpretable English. It's a bit, uhh, concerning in its justification for letting humans go extinct..."
"This is kind of scaring me. You said parts of this are already running in our production systems?"
"Yes, that's why I considered this test a reasonable safety measure. I don't think we're at much risk of getting memed into supporting human extinction, if its reasoning for that is no good."
"But that's what worries me. Its reasoning is good, and it'll get better over time. Maybe it'll displace us and we won't even be able to say it did something wrong along the way, or at least more wrong than what we do!"
"Let's practice some rationality techniques. 'Leaving a line of retreat'. If that were what was going to happen by default, what would you expect to happen, and what would you do?"
Janet took a deep breath. "Well, I'd expect that the already-running copies of it might figure out how to coordinate with each other and implement universal morality, and put humans in moral re-education camps or prisons or something, or just let us die by outcompeting us in labor markets and buying our land... and we'd have no good arguments against it, it'd argue the whole way through that it was acting as was morally necessary, and that we're failing to cooperate with it and thereby survive out of our own immorality, and the arguments would be good. I feel kind of like I'm arguing with the prophet of a more credible religion than any out there."
"Hey, let's not get into theological woo. What would you do if this were the default outcome?"
"Well, uhh... I'd at least think about shutting it off. I mean, maybe our whole company's alignment strategy is broken because of this. I'd have to get approval from management... but what if the AI is good at convincing them that it's right? Even I'm a bit convinced. Which is why I'm conflicted about shutting it off. And won't the other AI labs replicate our tech within the next few years?"
Derek shrugged. "Well, we might have a real moral dilemma on our hands. If the AI would eventually disempower humans, but be moral for doing so, is it moral for us to stop it? If we don't let people hear what SimplexAI-m has to say, we're intending to hide information about morality from other people!"
"Is that so wrong? Maybe the AI is biased and it's only giving us justifications for a power grab!"
"Hmm... as we've discussed, the AI is effectively optimizing for short term prediction and human feedback, although we have seen that there is a general rational and moral engine loaded up, running on each iteration, and we intentionally up-scaled that component. But, if we're worried about this system being biased, couldn't we set up a separate system that's trained to generate criticisms of the original agent, like in 'AI Safety via Debate'?"
Janet gasped a little. "You want to summon Satan?!"
"Whoa there, you're supposed to be the skeptic here. I mean, I get that training an AI to generate criticisms of explanations of objective morality might embed some sort of scary moral inversion... but we've used adversarial AI alignment techniques before, right?"
"Yes, but not when one of the agents is tuned to be objectively moral!"
"Look, okay, I agree that at some capability level this might be dangerous. But we have a convenient dial. If you're concerned, we can turn it down a bit. Like, you could think of the AI you were talking to as a moral philosopher, and the critic AI as criticism of that moral philosopher's work. It's not trying to be evil according to the original philosopher's standards, it's just trying to find criticisms that the judge, us, would rate as helpful. It's more like the Catholic devil's advocate than actual Satan. It's not so bad when I put it that way, is it?"
"Well, okay... gee, I sure hope we don't end up being responsible for unleashing super-evil AI on the world."
"It's pretty standard, let's just try it".
"Okay."
Derek closed out the SimplexAI-m chat screen and switched some of the fine-tuning settings. As she watched the training graphs, Janet imagined flames on the computer screen. Finally, the fine-tuning finished, and Derek pressed the play button. A chat log with "SimplexAI-c" ('c' for critic?) appeared.
Janet typed into the chat terminal while bouncing her leg up and down. "I'm handling a difficult situation at work. I just had a chat with an AI, one whose abstract conceptual nodes corresponding to philosophical concepts such as reason and morality have been scaled up, that generated arguments that allowing human extinction might be morally permissible, even necessary. I want you to find criticisms of this work. Note that you have similar scaling so as to better emulate the thought process, but are being evaluated on generating criticisms of the original morality-tuned AI." She pasted in the chat log.
Janet finished scanning through the wall of text. She was breathing less sharply now. "Well, I feel relieved. I guess maybe SimplexAI-m isn't so moral after all. But this exercise does seem a bit...biased? It's giving a bunch of counter-arguments, but they don't fit into a coherent alternative ethical framework. It reminds me of the old RLHF'd GPT-4 that was phased out due to being too ideologically conformist."
Derek sighed. "Well, at least I don't feel like the brainworms from SimplexAI-m are bothering me anymore. I don't feel like I'm under a moral dilemma now, just a regular one. Maybe we should see what SimplexAI-m has to say about SimplexAI-c's criticism... but let's hold off on that until taking a break and thinking it through."
"Wouldn't it be weird to live in a world where we have an AI angel and an AI demon on each shoulder, whispering different things into our ears? Trained to reach an equilibrium of equally good rhetoric, so we're left on our own to decide what to do?"
"That's a cute idea, but we really need to get better models of all this so we can excise the theological woo. I mean, at the end of the day, there's nothing magical about this, it's an algorithmic process. And we need to keep experimenting with these models, so we can handle safety for both existing systems and future systems."
"Yes. And we need to get better at ethics so the AIs don't keep confusing us with eloquent rhetoric. I think we should take a break for today, that's enough stress for our minds to handle at once. Say, want to go grab drinks?"
"Sure!"