This is a linkpost for https://magnusvinding.com/2017/12/16/a-contra-ai-foom-reading-list/
This is a linkpost to a list of skeptical takes on AI FOOM. I haven't read them all and probably disagree with some of them, but it's valuable to put these arguments in one place.
It seems nice to have these in one place but I'd love it if someone highlighted a top 10 or something.
Thanks, this is quite useful.
Still, it is rather difficult to imagine that they can be right. The standard argument seems to be quite compact.
Consider an ecosystem of human-equivalent artificial software engineers and artificial AI researchers. Take a population of those and make them work on producing a better, faster, more competent next generation of artificial software engineers and artificial AI researchers. Repeat using a population of better, faster, more competent entities, etc... If this saturates, it would probably saturate very far above human level...
(Of course, if people still believe that human-equivalent artificial software engineers and human-equivalent artificial AI researchers are a tall order, then skepticism is quite justified. But it's getting more and more difficult to believe that...)