Hey everyone, 1st year radiology resident here! I'm passionate about web development and since medicine has taken most of my free time over the past years, I haven't been able to train my coding muscles that much, and I'm glad vibe coding exists nowadays that lets us make our ideas a reality way faster than it would otherwise take. Anyway, long story short, ever since I was in med school, I always wished there was a tool to log my diagnostic guesses (e.g., “70% this is pneumonia”), track outcomes, and actually measure whether my confidence matched reality. Nowadays there are some tools that let you do that, like fatebook and metaculus, but I believe I've made a good alternative to these that lets you see all your personal stats and accuracy trend graphs, community predictions, reactions -- everything on one page. It's called Guessometer, and lets you create a prediction card with a title and description, confidence level, target date, category. Once the result of the prediction becomes known, you mark it as Correct or Incorrect.

1. Log a prediction with a probability (X% confidence) and an outcome date. Mark it as "Correct" or "Incorrect" when the result becomes known.
2. 2. Once the outcome is known, the website compares your accuracy over time (actual outcome) with your overall confidence level (your initial X% confidence).
3. Automatic scoring with Brier score and trend graphs so you can watch calibration improve.
4. Leaderboard that ranks you based on accuracy and Brier score.
    

5. Keep predictions private or make them public.
    

   If you’re curious, try it out and let me know what you think, especially what would make it helpful for aspiring superforecasters.

Sorry for the shameless plug, I honestly hope it's useful to at least some of you and it's completely free. I'm just really excited and wanted your opinion on how I might improve it.

Thanks for your time!