Assuming that the wisdom gap is the hook then this image should come first
The transition from 4x cheaper to time-horizon test might be more obvious given the full blog post context. Out-of-context I fail to see a clear story-telling transition

Reply

[-]Chris_Leong1mo20

Thanks for the suggestions. I reordered the graphs to tell a clearer narrative.

Reply

[-]mishka2mo20

Not other graphs, but with Metaculus estimates it might make sense to emphasize that the mode of that distribution is much closer to us compared to the average estimate there.

That black dot (the estimate) is considerably to the right of the peak.

Reply

[-]Chris_Leong2mo20

Is there any way to view the mode?

Reply

[-]mishka2mo20

Oops, this looks to me like a degradation of their interface :-(

It used to be possible to move a slider and by setting it on the curve peak to see the month corresponding to the mode, I think, and one could at least screenshot that (the scale of that image was larger too), but not anymore...

Yeah, Figure 4 in https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kygEPBDrGGoM8rz9a/conjecture-internal-survey-agi-timelines-and-probability-of shows how it used to look in 2023. I wonder, if one signs in, could one still get something reasonable?

Reply

Moderation Log