Feel reply to this comment with any suggestions about other graphs that I should consider including.
Not other graphs, but with Metaculus estimates it might make sense to emphasize that the mode of that distribution is much closer to us compared to the average estimate there.
That black dot (the estimate) is considerably to the right of the peak.
Oops, this looks to me like a degradation of their interface :-(
It used to be possible to move a slider and by setting it on the curve peak to see the month corresponding to the mode, I think, and one could at least screenshot that (the scale of that image was larger too), but not anymore...
Yeah, Figure 4 in https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kygEPBDrGGoM8rz9a/conjecture-internal-survey-agi-timelines-and-probability-of shows how it used to look in 2023. I wonder, if one signs in, could one still get something reasonable?
Except from the upcoming post: Beyond Human Wisdom: Can We Survive the Rise of AGI? Coming soon 😊(PM me if you'd be keen to provide feedback on the draft). |
| The 🅂🅄🅅 Triad |
| 🅂peed - in absolute terms and relative to the speed of governance 🅄ncertainty - regarding the situation and strategy 🅅ulnerability - many catastrophic threats that are hard or costly to defend against |
