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Linkpost: ‘Dissolving’ AI Risk – Parameter Uncertainty in AI Future Forecasting

by DavidW
13th Mar 2023
1 min read
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This is a linkpost for https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z7r83zrSXcis6ymKo/dissolving-ai-risk-parameter-uncertainty-in-ai-future#5___Analysis
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This post argues that Carlsmith's model, and conjunctive AI doom estimates in general, neglect an important statistical consideration that results in an inflated estimate of AI X-risk.