Let's say we have statement X that we ascribe a prior probability of 0.3

Then let's say we have a news source N, presented as an infinite feed of statements. N is sensationalistic with regards of X that are interesting to N:

If X is true N virtually always says that X is true.

But if X is not true N might still say that it is true.

N only reports if it intends to say that X is true, otherwise it says nothing and covers other topics instead.

The probability of N saying X is true when X is not true for our particular X is not known, but historically we know that N is wrong about 70% of times.

X is interesting to N and N says X is true. How will this shift our belief in X?

Let's say we have statement X that we ascribe a prior probability of 0.3

Then let's say we have a news source N, presented as an infinite feed of statements.

N is sensationalistic with regards of X that are

interestingto N:The probability of N saying X is true when X is not true for our particular X is not known, but

historicallywe know that N is wrong about 70% of times.X is interesting to N and N says X is true.

How will this shift our belief in X?