Predictably Wrong

Aug 24, 2017

by Eliezer Yudkowsky

This, the first book, begins with a sequence on cognitive bias. The rest of the book won’t stick to just this topic; bad habits and bad ideas matter, even when they arise from our minds’ contents as opposed to our minds’ structure.

It is cognitive bias, however, that provides the clearest and most direct glimpse into the stuff of our psychology, into the shape of our heuristics and the logic of our limitations. It is with bias that we will begin.

Preface

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Biases: An Introduction

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Scope Insensitivity

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The Martial Art of Rationality

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Availability

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...What's a bias, again?

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Burdensome Details

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What Do We Mean By "Rationality"?

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Planning Fallacy

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Why truth? And...

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Feeling Rational

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The Lens That Sees Its Flaws

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