Predictably Wrong

Aug 24, 2017

by Eliezer Yudkowsky

This, the first book, begins with a sequence on cognitive bias. The rest of the book won’t stick to just this topic; bad habits and bad ideas matter, even when they arise from our minds’ contents as opposed to our minds’ structure.

It is cognitive bias, however, that provides the clearest and most direct glimpse into the stuff of our psychology, into the shape of our heuristics and the logic of our limitations. It is with bias that we will begin.

Preface

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Biases: An Introduction

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What Do We Mean By "Rationality"?

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Feeling Rational

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Why truth? And...

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...What's a bias, again?

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Availability

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Burdensome Details

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Planning Fallacy

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Expecting Short Inferential Distances

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The Lens That Sees Its Flaws

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