Overly Convenient Excuses

Aug 24, 2017

by Eliezer Yudkowsky

This sequence focuses on questions that are as probabilistically clear-cut as questions get. The Bayes-optimal answer is often infeasible to compute, but errors like confirmation bias can take root even in cases where the available evidence is overwhelming and we have plenty of time to think things over.

The Proper Use of Humility

8712y4 min readShow Highlight
46

The Third Alternative

6312y3 min readShow Highlight
83

Lotteries: A Waste of Hope

3612y1 min readShow Highlight
74

New Improved Lottery

5112y2 min readShow Highlight
37

But There's Still A Chance, Right?

5211y2 min readShow Highlight
52

The Fallacy of Gray

12311y4 min readShow Highlight
78

Absolute Authority

5111y7 min readShow Highlight
73

How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3

6411y2 min readShow Highlight
396

Infinite Certainty

4011y4 min readShow Highlight
121

0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities

4011y4 min readShow Highlight
133

Your Rationality is My Business

6912y2 min readShow Highlight
26