LESSWRONG
LW

Overly Convenient Excuses

Aug 24, 2017 by Eliezer Yudkowsky

This sequence focuses on questions that are as probabilistically clear-cut as questions get. The Bayes-optimal answer is often infeasible to compute, but errors like confirmation bias can take root even in cases where the available evidence is overwhelming and we have plenty of time to think things over.

51Rationality: An Introduction
Rob Bensinger
10y
10
340Tsuyoku Naritai! (I Want To Become Stronger)
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
82
195The Proper Use of Humility
Eliezer Yudkowsky
19y
54
92Tsuyoku vs. the Egalitarian Instinct
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
35
168The Third Alternative
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
86
99Lotteries: A Waste of Hope
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
73
126New Improved Lottery
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
44
122But There's Still A Chance, Right?
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
61
302The Fallacy of Gray
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
81
114Absolute Authority
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
78
158How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
410
89Infinite Certainty
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
130
1150 And 1 Are Not Probabilities
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
150
163Your Rationality is My Business
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
28