Fermi Estimation

Edited by plex, Yoav Ravid last updated 2nd Feb 2021

A Fermi Estimation is a rough calculation which aims to be right within ~an order of magnitude, prioritizing getting a good enough to be useful answer without putting large amounts of thought and research in rather than being extremely accurate.

Related Pages: Forecasting & Prediction

Posts tagged Fermi Estimation

121Fermi Estimates

lukeprog

12y

110

86How To Fermi Model

habryka, Eli Tyre

5y

9

38What are some triggers that prompt you to do a Fermi estimate, or to pull up a spreadsheet and make a simple/rough quantitative model?

Q

Eli Tyre, johnswentworth

4y

Q

16

40What’s the chance a smart London resident dies of a Russian nuke in the next month?

DanielFilan

4y

8

69An AI Race With China Can Be Better Than Not Racing

niplav

1y

36

60Ideas for benchmarking LLM creativity

gwern

9mo

11

33Estimating the cost-effectiveness of research

owencb

11y

2

25The Math of Suspicious Coincidences

Roko

2y

3

25Willing gamblers, spherical cows, and AIs

ChrisHallquist

12y

40

22The Evidence for Question Decomposition is Weak

niplav

2y

6

15Rough calculations: Fermi and the art of guessing

XiXiDu

14y

9

14Make your own cost-effectiveness Fermi estimates for one-off problems

owencb

11y

15

13Using Expert Disagreement

dspeyer

6y

1

11Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to estimate?

tgb

13y

46

11How do I find tutors for obscure skills/subjects (i.e. fermi estimation tutors)

Q

joraine

3y

Q

2

LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

Fermi Estimation