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Overconfidence

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Overconfidence
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You are viewing revision 1.7.0, last edited by Vladimir_Nesov

Overconfidence is the state of being more certain than is justified, given your priors and the evidence available.

Blog posts

  • Moral Overconfidence by Robin Hanson
  • When Error is High, Simplify by Robin Hanson
  • Academic Overconfidence by Robin Hanson