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I would instead choose a relatively light ‘this is not allowed’ where in practice we mostly look the other way

That is very seldom a good idea, for reasons detailed in https://siderea.dreamwidth.org/1209794.html (if euthanasia is outlawed, only outlaws will euthanize their patients) https://www.unqualified-reservations.org/2007/04/formalist-manifesto-originally-posted/ (any circumstance where the actual norms don't match the ostensible norms can lead to uncertainty and/or disagreements on what exactly the former are, and you don't want that)


Multiplying all this together gets you to a 1 in 80 million chance of all this stuff happening under the null hypothesis, which is highly significant. 

Not until you work out the chance of all this stuff happening under alternate hypotheses, and the prior probabilities of alternate hypotheses, and the prior probability of the null hypothesis.
(I asked random.org for 10 random bytes and I got 02 c8 c2 30 60 b3 2e 93 a6 e9 .  The chance of this happening under the null hypothesis is 1 in 1.2×10^24


"Being a physicist is a drag, but it still beats working" (Aurelio Grillo as quoted by Giorgio Parisi, translation from Italian mine)


I'm almost sure Sumerian had words for "artificial" and for "intelligence".

"Paracetamol" on the other hand... :-)


I'm almost sure I saw a Wikipedia article about this back in the mid 2000s with a 2D version of your plot, but I can't find anything relevant in either https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies#Statistical_fallacies or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_paradoxes#Statistics ... did I just dream of it?


 (it's hard to get curtains that block direct sunlight that well).

[These things](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Stellladen_Roll_fcm.jpg) are pretty much ubiquitous in Italy in buildings since circa 1970s, and [these ones](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Villa_Olmi_K.jpg) (which are somewhat less effective but still way better than a curtain) in earlier buildings.


I dunno...  IME, when someone not capable of steelmanning him reads e.g. David Icke, what usually happens is that they just think he must be crazy or something and dismiss him out of hand, not that they start believing in literal reptilian humanoids.


The ToC makes it looks like "blood donations" and "exercise" are among "things that will eventually kill you"...


(Not sure whether $50/day allows you to do this in San Francisco, but:) Live within walking/cycling distance of work, grocery stores, nightlife, museums, etc. so you won't have to drive a car every day.


Yeah, I often refuse giving people money for something I don't care about even if the impact of that on my wealth would be negligible just in order to not reward them.

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