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What are the best tools for recording predictions?
Answer by Aay17ushApr 11, 2024120

I'm surprised fatebook.io isn't an answer here. I had in the past tried a bunch of personal prediction tools and felt dis-satisfied. Either because of the complexity, UI, or something else. Anyways, I've been using fatebook for a couple weeks now and loving it.

More info: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yS3d46m23wRKDQobt/introducing-fatebook-the-fastest-way-to-make-and-track 

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Announcing Apollo Research
Aay17ush2y55

Good luck! :)

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Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down by Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aay17ush2y61

The way you use intelligence is different from how many people here using that word mean it. 
Check this out (for a partial understanding of what they mean): https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aiQabnugDhcrFtr9n/the-power-of-intelligence

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Truthseeking processes tend to be frame-invariant
Aay17ush2y30

Interesting! I've recently been thinking a bunch about "narratives" (frames) and how strongly they shape how/what we think. Making it much harder to see "the" truth since changing the narrative changes things quite a bit.

I'm curious if anyone has an example of how they would go about applying frame-invariance to rationality.

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Ritual as the only tool for overwriting values and goals
Aay17ush3y1212

These kinds of explorations (unusual and truth-seeking) are why I love lesswrong :)

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Models Don't "Get Reward"
Aay17ush3y42

I've found the post "Reward is not the optimization target" quite confusing. This post cleared the concept up for me. Especially the selection framing and example. Thank you!

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Why Aren't There More Schelling Holidays?
Aay17ush3y30

Finland too (and I expect quite a few other EU countries to do so as well)

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A daily routine I do for my AI safety research work
Aay17ush3y31

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/lists/1185207859728076800 AGI Safety core by JJ (From AI Safety Support)

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Approach to Screen Time
Aay17ush3y10

Lily: If I was a parent I would change the fifteen minutes to ten minutes. Screen time is kind of bad for kids. I also like having an hour and a half for movies, but I think maybe it's a bit much?

haha that’s so sweet! :D

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What is the most significant way you have changed your mind in the last year?
Answer by Aay17ushApr 14, 2022210

Tldr: Love used to be in short supply (for self and others). Read Replacing guilt and tried improv + metta meditation. Now it is in big supply and has lead to significant positive changes in my actions.

I have always been in a single-player and critical mindset, optimizing everything for me. Thinking about what would be a nice thing to do for others (and empathizing with their feelings) hardly ever popped into my awareness. 

Over the last year, 

  • Replacing guilt made me realize I didn't need negative thoughts to motivate me. This led me to incrementally decrease my self-criticism and learn to treat myself as I would a close friend.
  • Improv acting made me realize on a gut level that everyone has their own subjective experience that feels as true to them as mine feels to myself. This led me to get out of my head and be with the person.
  • Metta meditation made me realize I can learn to love others and myself far more than I do. A consequence is that deeply loving someone makes it really unlikely to have a bad social experience with them. Problems such as awkwardness, feeling judged, bad conversations, etc just die off and you actively start having very enjoyable social experiences. I'm surprised no self-help book talks about this.

 

Obviously, the process involved a lot more ups and downs than suggested here. But these are the three big factors I feel comfortable abstracting to that capture the fundamental changes.

I'm incredibly thankful to lesswrong and the wider rationality movement for the mentals tools it provides. My 2020 self would not have predicted this :)

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