This is a linkpost for https://fatebook.io
Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
16Raemon
2Adam B
15mesaoptimizer
24Adam B
2Adam B
1Adam B
13TurnTrout
12Screwtape
9Aryeh Englander
9Adam B
6Arun Johnson
5Adam B
1Arun Johnson
1ag4k
6Garrett Baker
2Adam B
5Celarix
2Adam B
1Celarix
4Neil
4mukashi
6Adam B
1mukashi
1Adam B
3mukashi
3Raemon
1Adam B
3fx
1meedstrom
3TeaTieAndHat
2brambleboy
1Adam B
2Joe Kwon
2Adam B
2vyasnikhil96
1Adam B
2Yoav Ravid
3Adam B
1Review Bot
1meedstrom
2Adam B
New Comment
+9. Fatebook has been a game changer for me, in terms of how practical it is to weave predictions into my decisionmaking. I donated $1000 to Sage to support it.
It's not listed here, but one of the most crucial things is the Fatebook Chrome Extension, which makes it possible to frictionless integrate it into my normal orienting process (which I do in google docs. You can also do it in the web version of Roam).
I've started work on "Enriched Fatebook" poweruser view that shows your calibration at a more granular level. I have several ideas for how to build additional poweruser UI for it but not sure if I'll get around to it. https://raemon.github.io/fatebook-enriched
One weakness is that the Slack Integration produces pretty bulky predictions, which makes it feel awkward to make a ton of predictions in a channel (and usually, when we're having a discussion where it'd be appropriate to make a prediction, it's useful to make like 3 predictions that tackle the question from different angles). Trimming off a few lines from the Slack UI would be good, i.e. see here:
I don't know what the limitations of the Slack integration are but you should be able to shave at least one line off that.
...
I currently thinking a thing that Quick Forecasting is missing is "qualia-based predictions." I.e. before I know "what probability do I assign here?" I often know things like "I don't believe in this, in my gut" or "I believe in this but in a loopy way where I'm the one driving the actions and I'm inhabiting a confident mode which is hard to be objective about." Right now Fatebook has tags for Questions, but not tags for "predictions."
Longterm, I think the Philosophically/Practically Correct Typing for an individual prediction should let you either put a number (if you have one), or a "prediction tag" which is some kind of metadata other than the raw probability. (But, admittedly I don't expect anyone other than me to use that for the near future so it's not obviously a priority)
Thanks Raemon – I'm a fan of ~all these ideas! I'm not spending much time on Fatebook specifically these days (busy with various other projects), but your feedback is and has been super useful.
It would be lovely if you could also support a form of formatted export feature so that people can use this tool with the knowledge that they can export the data and switch to another tool (if this one gets Googled) anytime.
But yes, I am really excited for a super-fast and easy-to-use and good-looking prediction book successor. Manifold markets was just intimidating for me, and the only reason I got into it was social motivation. This tool serves a more personal niche for prediction logging, I think, and that is good.
1
I agree - I think data export is especially important for a prediction platform so you're confident making long-run predictions.
I'm planning to add import/export to spreadsheet, and maybe also to JSON, probably this week. If anyone has thoughts about the format of this data lmk!
I've also added the ability to import your forecasts from a spreadsheet/CSV file, which I think is also useful for switching tools: fatebook.io/import-from-spreadsheet
This looks amazing. Thank you so much for making this. I've already integrated this in my team shard's MATS 4.0 slack, and look forward to quantifying our results over time. See also: Predictions for shard theory mechanistic interpretability results, but PredictionBook results are clunky and have lots of friction and were harder to coordinate on. That's why the MATS 3.0 prediction retrospective post isn't out yet.
I especially like the "hide other forecasters to avoid anchoring" feature.
I love Fatebook as a user, and also this feels like an odd fit for the Best Of LessWrong collection.
I usually think of the Best Of LessWrong collection as being the best posts from a given year. The collection used to be physical books, printed on paper, which I could physically hand to someone. By that standard, this isn't very good. What exactly would someone do with this post if they read it in a book? It's kind of just a (well written) advertisement. The magic happens if they go to the website.
But man, the last few years have been a giant leap forward in prediction tools, haven't they? Polymarket and Kalshi showing up in news broadcasts and respectable journalism, Manifold Markets having honest to goodness conferences, and here, quietly announced in a LessWrong post, is a tool that's starting to feel as much a reflex and habit to me as Google Search and my pomodoro timer. It's exactly what it says on the tin, a clean, fast, simple prediction tool, and the thought of going back to the google form I used to use makes me sad.
Take your +4 vote. It's a very well written advertisement for a product more people should use. If the LW team does print more Best Of LessWrong books, may I suggest having one page that literally just says "THESE PEOPLE USE FATEBOOK AND YOU SHOULD TOO" with a bunch of signatures underneath? (Half joking- but only half.)
1
1Thanks for asking - I'm interested in doing iOS and Android apps! It'd be helpful to hear if other people are keen for this to help prioritise.
For now, one option is to add a homescreen shortcut to the website in Chrome.
An Android app would definitely be valuable to me. I have my phone with me constantly, and my computer is often in another room, or entirely unavailable, so an app is much more available and lower friction.
Cool thanks! For now you can use https://fatebook.io on your phone, do you think a native app would be much better?
I've added the website as a shortcut to my home screen for the last 3 days and that seems to work pretty well! Would be useful to be able to use it when I don't have internet/data though.
Admittedly a very niche case, but I don't have a browser on my Android phone (to reduce distractions).
1I really like this, and am glad there's active development on something similar to predictionbook!
Glad to hear it!
For PredictionBook users: you can import all your historical predictions to Fatebook here: https://fatebook.io/import-from-prediction-book
Oh HELL yeah. I tried Metaculus's private predictions for this, but they needed just as much detail as the public ones did, at least in terms of "this field is required". They seem to be aiming more for the superforecaster/people who actually give their predictions some thought camp, which is perfectly fine, but not suited for me, who just wants something quick and simple.
Signup was easy, I love how it watches for dates in the question and automatically sets them in the resolve field. Posting a comment containing a link by itself (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/bitcoin-btc-price-could-hit-100000-by-end-2024-standard-chartered.html) on one of my private predictions seems to have posted a blank comment, though. (p.s. my odds on 1 BTC = $100,000 are about 15%)
Absolutely love this one. I've already migrated my (admittedly few) existing predictions over. Thanks for this!
EDIT: "Each day I’ll write down whether I want to leave or stay in my job. After 2 months, will I have chosen ‘leave’ on >30 days?" is such a good suggested question, both to demonstrate details about the site and also to get people to think about what prediction can do for them, personally! And I love how you can just click the suggestion and have it auto-populate into the title field.
1Thanks! I've personally been using this to force myself out of procrastination! I just give high probability Y to "finishing work X by the end of the day" and then, to preserve my precious brier score, I end up... doing it, most of the time. "The best way to predict the future is to shape it" actually applies very well to to-do lists.
A thing I'd quite like is to have tags for predictions (which, ideally, I can then see separate calibration scores for).
I hired someone to build this for predictionBook, and he came up with the UI option of just inserting hashtags into your prediction description (i.e. type something like "Donald Trump will win the 2024 election #politics" and it automatically gets the politics tag)
Can anyone who uses this or similar websites (eg. Predictionbook) explain what practical purpose websites like that have? Do you just want to check how correct your predictions are, or do you actually do something with that? Do you find the most value in the calibration graph and other statistics?
Fatebook has worked nicely for me so far, and I think it'd be cool to use it more throughout the day. Some features I'd like to see:
- Currently tags seem to only be useful for filtering your track record. I'd like to be able to filter the forecast list by tag.
- Allow clicking and dragging the bar to modify probabilities.
- An option to input probabilities in formats besides percentages, such as odds ratios or bits.
- An option to resolve by a specific time, not just a date, plus an option for push notification reminders instead of emails. This would open the door to super short-term forecasts like "Will I solve this problem in the next hour?". I've made a substitute for this feature by making reminders in Google Keep with a link to the prediction.
Thank you!
Currently tags seem to only be useful for filtering your track record. I'd like to be able to filter the forecast list by tag.
I agree this would be nice. But try clicking on a tag to see all of your forecasts under it!
Seems like a great tool, I've made several personal predictions to test it out and it was actually fun. The only thing that confused me is how the date widget works - it seemed to switch between date formats or something? idk. But I sometimes had trouble picking the date I want.
The LessWrong Review runs every year to select the posts that have most stood the test of time. This post is not yet eligible for review, but will be at the end of 2024. The top fifty or so posts are featured prominently on the site throughout the year.
Hopefully, the review is better than karma at judging enduring value. If we have accurate prediction markets on the review results, maybe we can have better incentives on LessWrong today. Will this post make the top fifty?
Just a thought: I experience discomfort with only being able to sign up via a Google account. I can get over it personally, but we should observe I'm probably not the only one, so there are people out there for whom this is an insurmountable hump that stops them from getting started. I dunno how many in actuality, but there are definitely bubbles where it's normal not to have used a Google service for years.
Alas, I dunno what alternative sign-up would be quickest and easiest to implement.
