Agree - Gell-Mann amnesia sums up my experience with trying to get ChatGPT to be useful for a professional context so far. It is weak on accuracy and details.
The speed issue is the #1 factor stopping me from trying audiobooks. A book might take me 4-8 hours to read but the internet tells me audio is 2-3x slower. I have a lot of other prejudices against audiobooks (flipping / skimming less easy, less focus on the task etc) but that's the main one.
Seconded - I'd like to see more of this angle of analysis too. I assume the reason why the 'soft take-off' is underdiscussed is that tech people a) pay more attention to the news on AI, and b) see the future of this stuff viscerally and the endgame is what looms. I think that's not wrong, because the endgame is indeed transformative. But how we get there and how quickly it happens is a completely open question.
I work in the AEC industry (Architecture, Engineering, Construction) - 90%+ of people have zero idea about recent advances in AI. But on the other hand, should they be personally worried about their employment prospects in the next decade? I feel like lots of LW-type people would say "Yes!" - I can only speak personally, but it's really hard for me to see it happening. If only for the fact that doing anything in meatspace takes a long time. There are plenty of great 'digital' solutions to problems in this industry that have been around for 10+ years and have still made no headway. I know AGI is different, but it's worth mentioning how slow things can be, and how much of a grinding bureaucracy many industries are.
The other way I think about it is that ultimately human concerns (politics, agency etc) underpin all economic activity, and there will be massive political and bureaucratic opposition to extreme levels of economic 'disruption' (in the negative sense of mass unemployment etc). I foresee active responses from the populace and governments shaping the path this takes to a significant degree (eg. increases in labour force protectionism). Not so much that capitalism just takes to AI like a duck to water, governments let it happen, and 99% of people end up in a terrafoam box in a few short years.
I can anecdotally report that when I started consistently getting up immediately upon my alarm going off the subjective feeling of the first 5-10 minutes was far superior and I didn't feel much tiredness even with a relatively short night of sleep. I started doing this through setting my alarm to the maximum latest time possible and still allow me to get to work on time, and then noticed how much better I felt while doing this (previously I was a chronic snooze-button masher and felt pretty groggy waking up).
I have noticed in the WFH/office phases of the past 2 years the effect has persisted - a worse subjective waking up experience when WFH. I think it's because without the pressure of needing to be at work, I don't develop an automatic routine of simply getting up unthinkingly when my alarm goes off.
I think part of this is related to how good your internal biological clock is. I'm the type of person that will wake up pretty consistently a few minutes before an alarm goes off anyway (sometimes even when the alarm is not my usual time, such as for a flight). Maybe the 'get up immediately' approach wouldn't work as well if this isn't you.
So I looked into this, and the 'refine win condition' seems to be an actual technique that some of the best 3pt shooters do employ! I looked up some interviews with some of the best basketball shooters (Steph Curry and Ray Allen) and they mention playing little games with themselves while practice. They will do things such a define win condition as a swish instead of just making the shot, or employing some particular type of rhythm or footwork, or slightly altering the angle of their shot.
But on the other hand, they also mention plenty of repetitive drilling, and watching the available footage of them practicing, it is hard to see a 'stop after win' approach in action. There are videos of Steph Curry practicing with a coach who passes him the ball - it looks pretty repetitive to me (although maybe he's playing some mental games with himself that are hard to pick up?).
Thanks for the post - skill acquisition does seem like an area lacking attention from the rationalist community in general.
I wonder if these learnings would apply to sports. "Stop after win" doesn't seem like a productive idea if you are trying to get better at, say, shooting a 3pt shot in basketball - the traditional approach is "reps reps reps". Thoughts?
Ctrl+F "CFR" & "IFR" = 0 results. Apologies if you used different terminology here but I feel it is worth pointing out that CFR has cratered in many nations, even those with high case counts and high testing rates. The old assumption of ~.5-1% IFR seems to be thoroughly passed its use-by date. For highly vaxed populations current IFR is probably sub 0.1% overall, with the same qualifiers about age/morbidity profile etc.
Particularly of interest is Australia, which could be said to have had a lot of 'dry tinder' given the lack of pre-omicron deaths overall, and experienced a fairly high case peak recently - but Australia's rolling CFR is .06% as of today.
New variants notwithstanding, surely it is fair to say 'it's over' (actually for real this time).
Apparently the issue was subject to a quite a bit of activist opposition anyway - but the timing is suspicious, especially since the Serbian PM was personally involving herself in the issue.
I don't like listening to Rogan, but I do like hearing him translated into rationalist-speak.
Four, he has uniquely powerful ideas about how to do project management well...
I am interested in this. Any suggestions for posts that focus on project management specifically?