Yeah the +EV of this bet is marginal at best.
I would like to ask the panel:
How would you design a study in order to confirm whether or not there are long-term consequences after recovering from COVID-19?
Nothing I have seen so far seems convincing.
I found this paper on a long term followup of SARS recoveries: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/415378
Naturally, not enough time has passed to do a similar follow up.
I chose this photograph because it displays one of the most elegant watch movements ever made. Within this movement there is a perpetual calendar complication.
A perpetual calendar complication is a calendar feature within a watch that accounts for both short months and leap years. If you own a watch with a perpetual calendar complication, it would only have to be adjusted once every 100 years.
I just did a quick model of the 2016 elections, Clinton's FiveThiryEight prediction model probability of winning versus Clinton's percentage chance of winning based on betting odds for a range of dates. Here are the results:
August 18, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 81.82%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 86.40%
September 26, 2016*
Betting Market odds of winning: 68.25%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 54.80%
*This was debate night that year
October 25, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 84.62%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 85.00%
November 1, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 73.33%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 71.20%
I believe Zvi is arguing that since the betting market hasn't moved much, despite the perdiction odds of Trump winning deteriorating, there is no reason to believe the betting market will make any moves the closer we get to election. The closer we get to election night, assuming the discrepancy stays constant, the bigger the value on the Biden winning / Trump losing bet.
I think it's worth noting that the woman that died from a confirmed reinfection was 89 years old and suffering from a rare from of Leukemia.
For future reference, there is a website tracking COVID-19 reinfections. We are up to 24 confirmed reinfections.
By the way, your series of posts on the subject inspired me to write my own, focused more on those risks that those of us who recovered from COVID-19 face.
Thank you for the inspiration.
Great post, and yes, I would be quite angry if the solution to the major hurdle my generation has faced is so supplement D3 daily.
Anecdotally, I've been supplementing D3 (between 4,000 to 10,000 IU per day, depending on the time of the year) since 2007, my first winter in the northern hemisphere. Having spent my entire life near the equator, moving to place where there was under 10 hours of sunlight per day for months was very miserable. D3 solved that misery. I've also recovered from COVID-19 in 12 days. I know I am just one person, but perhaps D3 helped in my recovery?
I read this today and I found it a great resource. Not necessarily and answer to your question, but relevant.
We all know the success of New Zealand's lock down. This case study explains in detail the steps New Zealand took at a national level to achieve its success.
Lock downs have led to significant decreases in seasonal influenza in the Southern Hemisphere.
Data from Australia
Data from New Zealand