While I concur with your conclusion, I fear that if mainstream media presents the results like you did in this post, it will create a perverse incentive. I posted the UK press release in my social media and immediately folks started saying that they should try to catch it in order to get immunity.
Is it possible to make this a standalone post? This is fantastic information.
Agreed on both comments. Hopefully the pre-print is more clear
Interesting report on reinfections came out today.
"PHE scientists working on the study have concluded naturally acquired immunity as a result of past infections provide 83% protection against reinfection, compared to people who have not had the disease before. This appears to last at least for 5 months from first becoming sick."
Great answer. Thank you.
I hadn't really thought about Trump resigning, but I don't believe the odds of that happening are anywhere near 20%.
Great post as usual.
I just want to update you that my sister got the first jab in UAE on Tuesday. She's in her late 20s and works from home. Literally last in any vaccine priority list.
She walked in first thing in the morning, walked out in less than 20 minutes. She will be back on the 26th for her second shot.
Have you looked at this preprint? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248834v1I found it linked from here: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/04/variants-and-vaccines
I don't really understand your second graph. Didn't the S&P 500 Total Return already recover all of its losses since the crash?
Also, the broader monetary policy reaction function is always critical to consider in my opinion. The FOMC would be more likely to extend the weighted-maturity of their asset purchases if it looks like COVID is resurging in an unexpected way.
Wouldn't this make the long long-term treasuries attractive?
This is sound advice.