I found the perfect hedge:
I bet $5,000 to win $33,500 that the following Metaculus question resolves YES https://metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/…
Bet is voided if resolution is ambiguous.
Yeah this sucks, and I have no idea how to fix it.
But if you want top notch information of what's happening at the front lines in SF, follow this twitter account:
https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1475188579684913152
Zvi, are you betting your beliefs on Polymarket?
Have you seen the flip of the record cases market in the last three days?
A few ways to hedge that were floating in my head:
Long natural gas futures
Long Brent oil futures
Buy VIX calls
Buy DXY calls
Buy VGK puts
New Omicron market on Polymarket:
https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10pct-of-us-covid-19-cases-be-from-the-omicron-variant-on-january-1-2022
If you use the platform, just link your polymarket address and people can peer to peer you tips at no cost.
Hey Zvi, do you accept tips through Polymarket?
Zvi you got one of your markets:
https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fda-give-emergency-use-authorization-or-otherwise-approve-paxlovid-before-2022
Re: effectiveness of Paxlovid vs Omicron:
https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9/status/1464099757408751616?t=_ewDKnnijBgpeAzydqew4g&s=19&fbclid=IwAR2Jmkxy_iLjXkQhUoGrtBqMimpqBTWy5NLPRWheemNWcJAcT6j93JjydWA
https://www.livescience.com/16070-geoengineering-climate-cooling-balloon.html
Not sure why this wasn't looked any further.