Zvi, what do you think of this market, given the rise in the delta variant?https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-1000-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-september-1
Whoa, I always read it as Metacalculus. Editing on both thanks for the heads up.
Previous suggestion on LessWrong suggests that savy uses of PolyMarket don't do that. They would create a Yes/No share pair and then sell the No for a few of 2% of $0.09.
This is true. Polymarket has a couple of tricks to save on fees.
I don't think that's the case. Having access to an accurate probability about whether the Olympics will tell local hotels about how important it is to have a lot of beds available. It will tell AirBnB whether it makes sense to run ad campaings to get people to rent out their homes for hosting tourists that come for the Olympics.
I agree with you. Didn't really think of this to be honest!
The problem with doing it on the Ethereum network is gas fees. Even with super low gas fees (~$3), this strategy would cost over$100 to implement. I agree that doing this on Polygon / Matic is not ideal, as it is a sidechain / quasi L2 solution that sacrifices decentralization for speed and cost, but for illustration purposes, it works. It takes ~40 mins to bridge Ethereum from the Matic network to the Ethereum mainnet,
This write up is a good complement to this post: https://wifpr.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/DeFi-Beyond-the-Hype.pdf
I am excited to go to the US in July to get my shot.
Where I live, my age group will be eligible sometime in September. Might as well make a vacation out getting vaccinated.
What do you say about the behavior of those of us who had COVID 6 months ago or after?
Not necessarily. You can have people believe that EMH works in US equities or US Treasuries but not say, US corps.
But most people in finance that I encountered throughout my career believed that EMH did not worked in any market.
I studied and worked in finance and I don't think I ever met someone who truly believed that the EMH was the absolute truth.
Thank you for your response!
I have made some changes to the original post regarding your nitpicks. I agree with them. I also appreciate your in depth breakdown of all of my sections, I think the community here will appreciate your detail follow up / counters to my post. I am trying to think of a way to edit my post so that it is more clear that I use USTs and risk free rate interchangeably.