You do get one guarantee, though: All the experiments are Bernoulli processes. In particular, the order of the trials is irrelevant.

I think those aren't quite equivalent statements? If I pick my favorite string of bits, and shuffle it by a random permutation, then the probability of each bit being 1 is equal, the order is totally irrelevant (it was chosen at random), but it's not Bernoulli because the trials aren't independent of each other (if you know what my favorite string of bits is, you can learn the final bit as soon as you've observed all the rest.)

I think my lease might not let me paint my room green? Then again, maybe it does, or maybe if I painted it back before leaving I could get away with it...

Inducing trance isn't superhuman!

You might think it's "p of doom" like how "f(x)" is "f of x", but actually I think people usually say just "p doom".

The most elite groups (like billionaires or jews)

This quote looks pretty bad, but...

The most elite groups (like billionaires or Jews) are often the ones it’s most socially acceptable to blame for problems, or even call for violence against.

Now, you could maybe still critique this quote, but it reads very differently than when you cut the sentence off immediately!

That’s the picture that someone would come away with, after reading your characterization. And, of course, it would be completely inaccurate.

I'm not sure the more accurate picture is flawless behavior or anything, but I do think I definitely had an inaccurate picture in the way Said describes.

It definitely seems worth knowing about and understanding, but stuff like needing to specify a universal turing machine does still give me pause. It doesn't make it uninsightful, but I do still think there is more work to do to really understand induction.

On the contrary, I think the authorship of a text is often relevant in some way! My enjoyment of this blog post was much furthered by my acquaintance with its author.

I suppose maybe the relevance isn't logical, but one cares about much beyond logic.

The recommendations I hear for MDMA usage are like, not much more than 200mg, wait at least a month and preferably three months between rolls, take the supplements recommended by https://rollsafe.org, have lots of water and electrolytes, don't overheat.

Following this advice, it's maybe given me a headache, but definitely not the terrible crashes some people report—but I may be unusually lucky in that regard.

It's definitely the drug I've had where I would be the most concerned about disregarding cautious safety procedures.

...You do not appear to me to have very much regard for the truth, given the whole thing where you declared that someone had not updated when they obviously had based only on them refusing to talk to you when you were being kind of rude.