Igor Kiriluk (1974-2022)
Igor was an organiser the first meet-up in Moscow about effective altruism around 2013. Today his body was found at his home. The day before he complained about depression and bad health. His cryopreservation now is being organised.
He was also a one of four organisers of Russian Transhumanist Movement, along with Danila Medvedev, Valeria Pride and Igor Artuhov around 2003.
His main topic of interest was paradise-engineering. He translated works of David Pearce.
He may look detached from reality but he was first to react on new ideas and has very large network of friends everywhere: between visionaries, scientists and officials. Being a great networker, he helped many people to find each other, especially in the field of life extension.
His FB page: https://www.facebook.com/igor.kirilyuk.3
New b.1.640.2 variant in France. More deadly than delta. 952 cases of which 315 on ventilator.
Age and dates of death on the cruise ship Diamond Princess:Age:4 people - 80s1 person 781 person 70s1 person - no dataDates of deaths: 20, 20, 23, 25, 28, 28, 1 march. One death every 1.3 days. Look like acceleration at the end of the period.Background death probability: for 80-year-old person, life expectancy is around 8 years or around 100 months. This means that for 1000 people aged late 70s-80s there will be 10 deaths just because of aging and stress. Based on the aging distribution on cruise ships, there were many old people. if half of the infected a... (read more)
Kardashev – the creator of the Kardashev's scale of civilizations – has died at 87. Here is his last video, which I recorded in May 2019. He spoke about the possibility of SETI via wormholes.
Argentina - Outbreak of bilateral pneumonia: Approximately 10 cases, 3 deaths, 20 under observation, Tucumán - September 1, 2022 https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/pneumonia-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili-af/argentina-ab/957860-argentina-outbreak-of-bilateral-pneumonia-approximately-10-cases-3-deaths-20-under-observation-tucum%C3%A1n-september-1-2022
Passways to AI infrastructureObviously, the current infrastructure is not automated enough to run without humans. All ideas about AI risk eventually boil down to a few suggestions on how AI will create its own infrastructure:
No-humans scenarios:- create nanobots via mailing DNA samples to some humans.- use some biological tricks, like remote control animals, and programmed bacteria.- build large manufacturing robots, maybe even humanoid ones to work in human-adapted workplaces. Build robots which build robots.
Humans-remain scenarios:- enslave some humans, ... (read more)
We maybe one prompt from AGI.
A hypothesis: carefully designed prompt could turn foundational model into full-blown AGI, but we just don't know which prompt.
Example: step-by-step reasoning in prompt increases foundational models' performance.
But real AGI-prompt needs to have memory, so it has to repeat itself while adding some new information. So by running serially, the model may accumulate knowledge inside the prompt.
Most of my thinking looks this way from inside: I have a prompt - an article headline and some other inputs - and generate most plausible continuations.
Observable consequences of simulation:
1. Larger chances of miracles or hacks
2. Large chances of simulation’s turn off or of a global catastrophe
3. I am more likely to play a special role or to live in interesting times
4. A possibility of afterlife.
Catching Treacherous Turn: A Model of the Multilevel AI Boxing
Two types of Occam' razor:
1) The simplest explanation is the most probable, so the distribution of probabilities for hypotheses looks like: 0.75, 0.12, 0.04 .... if hypothesis are ordered from simplest to more complex.
2) The simplest explanation is the just more probable, so the distribution of probabilities for hypotheses looks like: 0.09, 0.07, 0.06, 0.05.
The interesting feature of the second type is that simplest explanation is more likely to be wrong than right (its probability is less than 0.5).
Different types of Occam razor are applicable in d... (read more)
Some random ideas how to make GPT-base AI safer.
1) Scaffolding: use rule-based AI to check every solution provided by GPT part. It could work for computations or self-driving or robotics, but not against elaborated adversarial plots.
2) Many instances. Run GPT several times and choose random or best answer - we already doing this. Run several instances of GPT with different parameters or different training base and compare answers. Run different prompt. Median output seems to be a Shelling point around truth, and outstanding answers are more likely to be wr... (read more)
I converted by Immortality roadmap into an article Multilevel Strategy for Personal Immortality: Plan A – Fighting Aging, Plan B – Cryonics, Plan C – Digital Immortality, Plan D – Big World Immortality.
I have had tetrachromotomic experience with one mind machine which flickers different colors in different eyes. It overflows some stacks in the brain in create new colors.
List of cognitive biases affecting judgment of global risks https://www.researchgate.net/publication/366862337_List_of_cognitive_biases_affecting_judgment_of_global_risks/related
Grabby aliens without red dwarfs
Grabby aliens theory of Robin Hanson predicts that the nearest grabby aliens are 1 billion light years away but strongly depends on the habitability of red dwarfs (https://grabbyaliens.com/paper).
In the post, the author combines anthropic and Fermi, that is, the idea that we live in the universe with the highest concentration of aliens, limited by their invisibility, and get an estimation of around 100 "potentially visible" civilizations per observable universe, which at first approximation gives 1 billion ly distance b... (read more)
N-back hack. (Infohazard!) There is a way to increase one's performance in N-back, but it is almost cheating and N- back will stop to be a measure of one's short-term memory.The idea is to imagine writing all the numbers on a chalkboard in a row, as they are coming. Like 3, 7, 19, 23. After that, you just read the needed number from the string, which is located N positions back. You don't need to have a very strong visual memory or imagination to get a boost in your N-back results. I tried it a couple of times and get bored with N-back.
AI safety as Grey Goo in disguise.First, a rather obvious observation: while the Terminator movie pretends to display AI risk, it actually plays with fears of nuclear war – remember that explosion which destroys children's playground?
EY came to the realisation of AI risk after a period than he had worried more about grey goo (circa 1999) – unstoppable replication of nanorobots which will eat all biological matter, – as was revealed in a recent post about possible failures of EY's predictions. While his focus moved from grey goo to AI, the... (read more)
Glitch in the Matrix: Urban Legend or Evidence of the Simulation? The article is here: https://philpapers.org/rec/TURGITIn the last decade, an urban legend about “glitches in the matrix” has become popular. As it is typical for urban legends, there is no evidence for most such stories, and the phenomenon could be explained as resulting from hoaxes, creepypasta, coincidence, and different forms of cognitive bias. In addition, the folk understanding of probability does not bear much resemblance to actual probability distributions, resulting in the illusion o... (read more)
"Back to the Future: Curing Past Suffering and S-Risks via Indexical Uncertainty"
I uploaded the draft of my article about curing past sufferings.
The long unbearable sufferings in the past and agonies experienced in some future timelines in which a malevolent AI could torture people for some idiosyncratic reasons (s-risks) is a significant moral problem. Such events either already happened or will happen in causally disconnected regions of the multiverse and thus it seems unlikely that we can do anything about it. However, at least one pure theoret... (read more)
Quantum immortality of the second type. Classical theory of QI is based on the idea that all possible futures of a given observer do exist because of MWI and thus there will be always a future where he will not die in the next moment, even in the most dangerous situations (e.g. Russian roulette).
QI of the second type makes similar claims but about past. In MWI the same observer could appear via different past histories.
The main claim of QI-2: for any given observer there is a past history where current dangerous situation is not really dangerous. For... (read more)
How to Survive the End of the Universe
Abstract. The problem of surviving the end of the observable universe may seem very remote, but there are several reasons it may be important now: a) we may need to define soon the final goals of runaway space colonization and of superintelligent AI, b) the possibility of the solution will prove the plausibility of indefinite life extension, and с) the understanding of risks of the universe’s end will help us to escape dangers like artificial false vacuum decay. A possible solution depends on the type of t... (read more)
You started self quarantining, and by that I mean sitting at home alone and barely going outside, since december or january. I wonder, how's it going for you? How do you deal with loneliness?