This one is generated by Opus 4.5 based on my hand-made map. I asked it to give plausible probabilities. At first glance they are rather plausible as a prior. My main view is that both rare earth theory and late great filter are valid and as result the nearest grabby aliens are around 1 billion light years from us. 

My goal was to list all possible solutions here, but not to estimate them. However, in the really great post by Lukas there is a Monte Carlo model of distribution of different values in the Drake equation which creates two hills - one hill is ( as I understand the post) for all of the parameters are close to 1 habitable planet per star and another is 10exp(-100) where at least one is extremely low. This, however, is compensated by anthropic considerations which favor maximal concentration of habitable planets. 

I don't see eukaryotes as a really hard step as symbiosis between cells seems a logical step. 

Space travel in the dust may be solved by use of needle-like nanotechnological starships. They also can self-repair if collide small dust particles or gas. As we can see remote stars, most straight lines to them are dust free so the problems can be solvable. An alternative is sending heavy Orion-like nuclear ships and limit their speed to 0.1c. Heavy ship can carry heavy protection ahead it. 

 

I am still better than AI in reading (my) handwriting

See here AI-updated version of the map which includes probabilities and Global vs Local solution distinctions. If you press on any text it will provide more detailed explanation. But this AI-version may have subtle errors. Probabilities are AI-generated and just illustrative. 
https://avturchin.github.io/OpenSideloading/fermi_v11_en_interactive.html 

Click of the word pdf in above the map: "Fermi paradox solutions map, pdf "
and it should show pdf with links. 

I can but it will look like dark forest of text - from previous experience. Which point are not clear? 

I also have AI-enhanced version of the map with generated probabilities and I can ask it to add explanations. 

I think that the case of twins who generated prime numbers is a serious one. This leads us to overestimation of human brain capabilities. I used to be skeptical about it and was criticize for not believing. 

We have been working on sideloading - that is, on creating as good model as possible of a currently living person. One of approaches is to create an agent in which different parts mimic parts of human mind - like unconsciousness and long-term memory. 

If China thinks that AI is very important and that US is winning the AI race, it will have very strong incentive to start the war with Taiwan which has a chance to escalate to WW3. Thus selling chips to China lowers chances of nuclear war. 

This reduces x-risk, but one may argue that China is bad in AI safety and thus total risk is increasing. However, I think that equilibrium strategy when several AGIs are created simultaneously lowers chances that a single misaligned AI takes over the world. 

Can be good as if many AIs come to superintelligence simultaneously, they are more likely cooperate and thus include many different sets of values  - and it will be less likely that just one AI will take over the whole world for some weird value like Papercliper.