(A response to @mabramov post from a couple days ago: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WCutvyr9rr3cpF6hx/forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop-funding-it ) TL;DR: I agree with Marcus that broadly, additional forecasting funding to the tune of tens (!?) of millions of dollars at this point would probably not yield a great return. However, I think the benefits of some forecasting...
A market experiment where I get blackmailed 1. Just one more benchmark Way, way back in April, after an update briefly made ChatGPT go haywire and behave in a bizarre, sycophantic manner to users for a couple days, some people on the Internet were arguing about the potential for superhuman...
Manifold becomes a battleground for a long-standing debate What is a futarchy and how do we break it? It’s not that often that an entirely new system of government is proposed, which is why Robin Hanson’s proposal from the turn of the century for a form of government based around...