Here's two phrases I often use: "Better written fast than not written at all" and "You may have changed my betting odds, but you haven't changed my models!" One my friend Oli likes is "Better wrong than vague", though I like the formulation "Confidence is what it sounds like when I want you/reality to show me *precisely* where I'm wrong."
\[quick link search\]
Here's one of the standard posts on Overcoming Bias with [a theory of identity](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/08/a-theory-of-identity.html), which I think just agrees with and fleshes out the first sentence of your comment (with more emphasis on the 'useful'). OB has a [w...(read more)
Critch proved [a bounded version of Lob's theorem](https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.04184) and a related thing where two bounded agents with open source code can prove things about each other's source code. The significance of the agents being bounded, is that (if I recall the contents of the paper correc...(read more)
I was under the impression that there are many programs that want to manipulate our world, who can engage in acausal trade with each other to coordinate and act as a unified entity (which may have a net weight comparable to the simpler programs that are just correct).
This post helped me understand NP noticeably more than the complexity course I was just examined on - thanks. I didn't know there was such a thing as [descriptive complexity theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Descriptive_complexity_theory) (i.e. lists of correspondences between various subsets/cl...(read more)
+100. Thanks for this post, it's something I've been thinking about a lot in the past 6 months.
Huh. Wouldn't this argument suggest that, before the games master opens one of the doors, were he to offer you iterated switches, you should each time accept a switch because it has higher expected utility?
Edit: Iterated switches = the games master keeps offering you to switch doors, and you accep...(read more)
You don’t currently have the choice to post to frontpage; the reason your post is on frontpage is because a mod moved it there.
If you’d like posts not to go to frontpage do PM us, and we’ll build a better system for this in time.
For reference, see this LW post arguing that the expected utility of voting actually does justify doing so.
Huh. Fluid karma. Might be a good name for it, it more represents the quality where fixed amounts don't corresponding to individual votes.
Everything is by default posted to your personal blog. There ended up being a lot of posts on frontpage that were often low quality, so currently posting frontpage is no longer an option (except for users over a certain karma threshold I believe). Instead mods take responsibility to push appropriate...(read more)