(You've no idea how hard it is to not scroll over things like that.)

(That being said, I think this integration is awesome and kudos to everyone. Just keeping my priors sensible :) 

I do not endorse this as a way to end parentheticals! Grrr!

(Which you get using option-m on a mac.)

”Catastrophic” is normally used in the term ”global catastrophic risk” and means something like “kills 100,000s of people”, so I do think “doesn’t necessarily kill but could’ve killed a couple of people” is a fairly different meaning. In retrospect I realize that I put my answer to the second question far too high — if it just means “a deceptive aligned system nearly gives a few people in hospital a fatal dosage but it’s stopped and we don’t know why the system messed up” then it’s quite plausible nothing this substantial will happen as a result of that.

woop woop making predictions in posts is the way to go

Yeah, any LWer is welcome to record their predictions :)

I also noticed Daniel’s difference in probabilities there, and thought they were substantial. But it doesn’t seem unreasonable to me. The existing AI x-risk community has changed the global conversation on AI and also been responsible for much in the way of funding and direct research on many related technical problems. I could talk about the specific technical work, or the impact that things like the AI FOOM Debate had on Superintelligence had on OpenPhil, or CFAR on FLI on Musk on OpenAI. Or I could go into detail about the research being done on topics like Iterated Amplification and Agent Foundations and so on and ways that this seems to me to be clear progress on subproblems. I’m not sure exactly what alternatives you might have in mind.

I think TurnTrout is a pretty good example of someone who did stuff when anyone could but nobody did :)

I just saw this in recent discussion, just want to add a detail to Christian's comment, which is that you can dictate comment policy freely on Personal Blog; there are more standards for Frontpage posts.

Last two seem good to me