If you only thought of this in hindsight, was it disrespectful of you not to think of it before either? (Sure, we should hold the author of a post to a higher standard than the reader, but still, I think the point you're making here is actually relatively subtle, in the scheme of things, so it strikes me as an overstatement to call out someone as disrespectful for not thinking of it.)
I'm not claiming to have been morally pure at the time. I'm just claiming that this was disrespectful to King. I'm not calling for anyone to be punished or shamed here, just trying to describe an unfortunate aspect of the post worth avoiding in the future, because it seems relevant to the point under discussion.
There was probably some unfortunate element of point-scoring in the way I brought it up, for which I am sorry.
What do you think the point of prosecutorial discretion (and other sorts of institutionalized hypocrisy) is, if not disparate enforcement? Does the majority have a coherent agenda that it's afraid to inform itself about?
The director of NIAID publicly endorsed that model's bottom line.
Good point, I should add a clarifying note.
Given that it apparently took you some time to dig up even as much as a tweet with a screen cap of some numbers that with quite a lot of additional investigation might be helpful, I hope you're now at least less "confused" about why I am "relying on this back of the envelope rather than the pretty extensive body of work on this question."
If you want to see something better, show something better.
I clicked through to the tweet you mentioned, which contains a screencap of a chart purporting to show "An Approximate Percentage of the Population That Has COVID-19 Antibodies." No dates or other info about how these numbers might have been generated.
Fortunately, Gottlieb's next tweet in the thread contains another screencap of the URLs of the studies mentioned in the chart. I hand-transcribed the Wuhan study URL, and found that while it was performed at a date that's probably helpful (April 20th) it's a study in a single hospital in Wuhan, and the abstract explicitly says it's not a good population estimate:
Here, we reported the positive rate of COVID‐19 tests based on NAT, chest CT scan and a serological SARS‐CoV‐2 test, from April 3 to 15 in one hospital in Qingshan Destrict, Wuhan. We observed a ~10% SARS‐CoV‐2‐specific IgG positive rate from 1,402 tests. Combination of SARS‐CoV‐2 NAT and a specific serological test might facilitate the detection of COVID‐19 infection, or the asymptomatic SARS‐CoV‐2‐infected subjects. Large‐scale investigation is required to evaluate the herd immunity of the city, for the resuming people and for the re‐opened city.
I'd need to know more about e.g. hospitalization rates in Wuhan to interpret this.
The New York numbers seem to come from a press release, with no clear info about how testing was conducted.
All of these are point estimates, and to get ongoing infection rates, I'd need to fit a time series model with too many degrees of freedom. Not saying no one can do this, but definitely saying it's not clear to me how I can make use of these numbers without working on the problem full time for a few weeks.
You've nonspecifically referred to experts and models a few times; that's not helpful and only serves to intimidate. What would be helpful would be if you could point to specific models by specific experts that make specific claims which you found helpful.
This points to an important weakness in the data source I'm using here.
Not unless countries are reporting untested cases somehow.
A link, or other citation if this somehow isn't available online, would help here. As would an explanation of why I should prefer this number to some other.