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Former tech entrepreneur (co-creator of the music software Sibelius). Among other things I now play the stock market, write software to predict it, and occasionally advise tech startups. I have degrees in philosophy.

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4bfinn's Shortform
4y
26
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Why Have Sentence Lengths Decreased?
bfinn3mo156

Orwell noted that the semicolon is almost redundant. I wonder if sentences that once would have had a semicolon half way through are now split into two sentences.

Reply2
What are your greatest one-shot life improvements?
bfinn1y10

No except that, as mentioned, maybe I have particularly sensitive feet.

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Third Time: a better way to work
bfinn1y10

Great, thanks!

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What are your greatest one-shot life improvements?
bfinn1y40

Yes, still doing this every morning, and it still works same as ever!

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Social Dark Matter
bfinn2y40

Somewhat relatedly, about 10 years ago I heard someone on the radio predicting that a long-term effect of social media would be greater acceptance of others' flaws, particularly youthful indiscretions that previously would have damaged a policitican's career - e.g. that they had smoked marijuana at college.

Such indiscretions would now be permanently documented on say Facebook when they occur. So everyone would gradually get used to the idea that such things are widespread and almost-normal, and almost all future politicians would be found to have such flaws/misdemeanours in their past. Expecting them to have none would become unrealistic, and if anything a politician with nothing bad visible in their past would seem not just squeaky-clean but abnormal, perhaps even weird.

This seemed quite a profound observation at the time, at least for the kind of analysis usually heard on the radio. But in the 10 years since I haven't particularly noticed this trend in public attitudes emerging. Or at least, judging by social media (probably unwise), in many ways there seems to be less tolerance than before. Or more likely a mixed picture - there is more tolerance of some things (e.g. being trans) but less of others (e.g. unfashionable views), and (as is often observed) social media amplifies intolerance as it makes for stronger clickbait. So possibly the overall trend in tolerance, or at least of tolerance apparent on social media, is flatter than predicted.

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The World According to Dominic Cummings
bfinn2y10

Re departmental historians: the UK's Foreign Office does have (or had) a small team of historians; someone I know was one of them for a year or two. Apparently they were writing up the history of the Foreign Office in chronological order, at slower than real time; hence were falling further and further behind. They had got up to 1947 or something, but would never catch up. When they completed the history of a year, it was published in an internal book (I assume not publicly available due to national security etc.), which went on a shelf and no-one ever read.

Each year the historians had to submit a justification for their continued existence. The guy I know said there was none, and they should just write: "The Foreign Office should close down its history department."

I suppose what this shows is that if internal historians have a use, it's important that they know the full departmental history, particularly recent decades; they are involved in departmental decisions; and the history is as up-to-date as possible.

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Self-Blinded L-Theanine RCT
bfinn2y21

Upvote, not least for my first ever sighting in the wild of the interrobang.

Reply1
Losing the root for the tree
bfinn3y10

The thickness has units of something like [effect]/[work]

I.e. presumably benefit/cost (work being a cost, whether financial or not), = the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) used in cost-benefit analysis in economics.

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Losing the root for the tree
bfinn3y1-1

Is the moral of this really that all decisions should be made so as to maximize the ultimate goal of happiness x longevity (of you or everyone), in utilitarian fashion; whereas maximizing for subgoals is sometimes/often a poor proxy?

Or is it impractical to do utilitarian calculus all the time, but calculations/heuristics with the thin and thick lines can clarify the role of the subgoals so they can be used as adequate proxies?

(It's partly unclear in my head as I didn't grok the exact meaning of the lines & their thicknesses. And it's too late at night for me to think about this!)

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Third Time: a better way to work
bfinn3y11

Others would have to report whether they find it more useful than what they do now (eg Pomodoro), but the reason I think it may well be is indeed the fact it fixes the various Pomodoro problems.

Re new downsides Third Time itself introduces, the one I'm aware of is indeed its extra complexity - hence it is best implemented in an app. But if others find other downsides, I'd be interested to hear of them.

(Alas I haven't got round to finishing Part 2 yet - been busy with other things, notably analyzing the academic research into what the best ways to spend a break are, which I'll write up in due course.)

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13What’s wrong with Pomodoro
3y
13
134Third Time: a better way to work
4y
76
9Ordering yourself around with an app
4y
2
39Coronavirus crash vs history
4y
3
4bfinn's Shortform
4y
26
13How & when to write a business plan
4y
5
18Write a business plan already
4y
14
19Stock market hints for 2021 from past crashes
5y
8
22Post-crash market efficiency 1696-2020
5y
8
41162 benefits of coronavirus
5y
20
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