Look at the following statements*:
- “India and Pakistan can agree on one thing: neither wants the other one around.”
- “The Americans don’t really want to fight for the South Koreans, but nor can they afford to be seen to be giving up on a friend.”
- “What is now the EU was set up so that France and Germany could hug each other so tightly in a loving embrace that neither would be able to get an arm free with which to punch the other.”
I don't want to argue whether these statements are true or not. What's bugging me is that they all contain an implicit assumption that a state acts as an intelligent agent at... (read more)
One possible explanation+solution from the "Hammertime" author: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o8EWXypYGwJ6JYpBT/hammertime-day-8-sunk-cost-faith