I operate by Crocker's rules.
I try to not make people regret telling me things. So in particular:
- I expect to be safe to ask if your post would give AI labs dangerous ideas.
- If you worry I'll produce such posts, I'll try to keep your worry from making them more likely even if I disagree. Not thinking there will be easier if you don't spell it out in the initial contact.
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https://www.google.com/search?q=spx futures
I was specifically looking at Nov 5th 0:00-6:00, which twitched enough to show aliveness, while manifold and polymarket moved in smooth synchrony.
The public will Goodhart any metric you hand over to it. If you provide evaluation as a service, you will know how many attempts an AI lab made at your test.
3If you say heads every time, half of all futures contain you; likewise with tails.
Your experiment is contaminated: If a piece of training document said that AI texts are overly verbose, and then announced that the following is a piece of AI-written text, it'd be a natural guess that the document would continue with overly verbose text, and so that's what an autocomplete engine will generate.
Due to RLHF, AI is no longer cleanly modelled as an autocomplete engine, but the point stands. For science, you could try having AI assist in the writing of an article making the opposite claim :).
Ask something only they would know.
Among monotonic, boolean quantifiers that don't ignore their input, exists is maximal because it returns true as often as possible; forall is minimal because it returns true as rarely as possible.
For concreteness, let's say the basic income is the same in every city, same for a paraplegic or Elon Musk. Anyone who can vote gets it, it's a dividend on your share of the country.
I am surprised at section 3; I don't remember anyone who seriously argues that women should be dependent on men. By amusing coincidence, my last paragraph makes your reasoning out of scope; you can abolish women's suffrage in a separate bill.
In section 5, you are led astray by assuming a fixed demand for labor. You notice that we have yet to become obsolete. Well, of course: For as long as human inputs remain cheaper than their outputs, employment statistics will fail to reflect our dwindling comparative advantage. But we are on track to turn every graphics card into a cheaper white collar worker. Humans have to be trained for jobs, software can be copied. Human hands might remain SOTA for a few years longer. Horses weren't reduced to pets because we built too many cars, but because cars became possible to build.
What is going to be done with these numbers? If Sleeping Beauty is to gamble her money, she should accept the same betting odds as a thirder. If she has to decide which coinflip result kills her, she should be ambivalent like a halfer.