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Covid 2/11: As Expected

20.3% of the analysed cases in week 4 were B.1.1.7, and current numbers for week 5 show 28.5%. The pdf linked from https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/opgoerelse-over-udvalgte-af-sars-cov-2-virusvarianter is currently updated daily.

Data about the new coronavirus variant (B.1.1.7) from Denmark

This follow-up work is also interesting: https://www.ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/files/scenarier_for_udviklingen_i_den_engelske_virusvariant_af_sars-cov-2.pdf?la=da

They use an agent-based model to extrapolate that the UK variant will reach 50% prevalence in Denmark around 40-50 days after Jan 1. 

The model does not account for control loop effects or vaccinations. It says that absent these and with the usual assumptions, Denmark would see a strong peak after 90 days where around 1.4% of the country would be infected at the same time, followed by herd-immunity decline to current infection levels after 180 days.

What evidence will tell us about the new strain? How are you updating?

On 2: This reports that Denmark has found 33 cases of the new variant, out of 7800 analysed between Nov 14 and Dec 14. Source: https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2020/statens-serum-institut-udgiver-opdaterede-tal-for-den-engelske-covid-19-virusvariant, English reporting: https://www.thelocal.dk/20201224/denmark

Note that the 2020 LWCW was cancelled due to COVID-19.

Stupid Questions - September 2017

Agreed!

My slightly grumpy theory is that Apple introduced silly-high dpis as a unique selling point and the other manufacturers had to follow. Sure, some increase in pixel density was useful but they overshot the ideal. (maybe my eyesight is worse than usual, or I have atypical usecases?)

Stupid Questions - September 2017

The typical distance between your eyes and the display is closer for a smartphone than for a monitor. If you had both and they had the same resolution the smartphone-pixel would usually take up more of your field of view than the monitor-pixel. The closer the display is to your eyes, the more pixels you'd like it to have. Think about VR headsets as an extreme case: their displays have resolutions like 2160x1200 and people complain that they can see every pixel.

And relating to that, adding more pixels has diminishing returns. Personally for instance I don't care about adding more pixels to current-gen monitors (while keeping the size constant; larger screens need more pixels). Some people would certainly be able to make use of it, but I would hardly benefit. Improvements in color would be very nice though and it's nice to see things start moving into that direction.

LW 2.0 Open Beta Live

I have the same problem with a gmail account. I've tried several times, checked spam, searched. I assume google didn't accept the email.

EDIT: One of them arrived now.

2017 LessWrong Survey

I've taken the survey.

Why CFAR? The view from 2015

Here's a concrete anecdote related to the "Do-gooding and epistemic rationality" part.

One of the key benefits I got from the workshop I attended in 2014 was clearer perception and acceptance of my goals.

"I don't know what's important to me beyond myself, family, friends" and "It doesn't seem like I really care about the world" (donating to EA charities seemed like a should) got changed. I do care, and already did before the workshop. It seems like the goals hadn't propagated fully, I hadn't accepted them - possibly because of the scope, the stakes and the implications of taking them seriously.

I have a clear memory of this shift happening because the question "Given these goals, is what you're currently doing correct?" popped up for real the first time. It was great to be able to talk about it directly.

European Community Weekend 2016

There's a good chance you'll be able to participate even if you sign up late. We plan for more participants this time (100 instead of 80) and will also stagger signups in a way keeps some tickets available until a month in advance. If you want to be sure, committing now remains the best option though.

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