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6Bucky's Shortform
6y
18
If worker coops are so productive, why aren't they everywhere?
Bucky1mo20

The Co-Op’s purchase of Somerfield (£1.57b) would seem like an interesting case study - why did they decide to go ahead with this? Did it actually benefit staff in the long run?

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The Purpose of a System is what it Rewards
Bucky2mo20

Yeah, I think that clarifies my thoughts - IMO using the word purpose is not ok in these other perspectives unless you actually mean a person had that purpose. it brings in connotations that someone has this purpose for which we then assign moral blame when the real question may be competence. And then, when there is moral blame, separating that from a competence issue is harder.

Much better IMO to say “this system isn’t achieving its purpose” than to say “this system has this other purpose” unless that’s what you mean - you are claiming that some designer(s) have this other purpose.

I’m not familiar specifically with HSR but my guess is that there are multiple purposes from multiple people. Some designers have the purpose to improve transport links, some want a big project to make their name and some want a jobs program. Systems can have multiple purposes and trying to narrow it down to a single one oversimplifies things.

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The Purpose of a System is what it Rewards
Bucky2mo60

I don’t think this works for general systems. For POSIWID the purpose of a car is to to get you for A to B. I don’t think POSIWIR returns a result - cars aren’t rewarded.

Having said that, I do think it’s much more interesting than POSIWID and, for human systems, more likely to yield sensible answers.

My take would be that purpose comes from conscious minds - the purpose of a system is what the designer intends. This is true even if the designer is rubbish at their job and their system doesn’t achieve the purpose they intend. When we don’t know what the designer intends we try to work it out by looking at what the system does or what it rewards.

This declares by fiat that non-engineered systems have no purpose but I think I’m ok with that. The purpose of a rabbit is not to make baby rabbits - rabbits just are. Saying rabbits have a purpose is to anthropomorphise evolution.

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Eliezer and I wrote a book: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
Bucky4mo*8-1

Quick note that I can't open the webpage via my institution (same issue on multiple browsers). Their restrictions can be quite annoying and get triggered alot. I can view it myself easily enough on phone but if you want this to get out beware trivial inconveniences and all that...

Firefox message is below.

Secure Connection Failed

An error occurred during a connection to ifanyonebuildsit.com. Cannot communicate securely with peer: no common encryption algorithm(s).

Error code: SSL_ERROR_NO_CYPHER_OVERLAP

  • The page you are trying to view cannot be shown because the authenticity of the received data could not be verified.
  • Please contact the web site owners to inform them of this problem.
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Dragon Agnosticism
Bucky1y139

Do dragon unbelievers accept this stance? My impression is that dragon agnosticism would often be considered almost as bad as dragon belief.

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The Worst Form Of Government (Except For Everything Else We've Tried)
Bucky1y7257

I’m confused as to how the fits in with UK politics. I don’t think the minority party has any kind of veto?

I guess we have the House of Lords but this doesn’t really have a veto (at least not long term) and the House of Commons and House of Lords aren’t always or even usually controlled by different factions.

Reply1
Running the Numbers on a Heat Pump
Bucky2y20

One extra thing to consider financially is if you have a smart meter then you can get all of your hot water and a chunk of your heating done at off peak rates. Our off peak electricity rates are about equal per kWh to gas rates.

Without this I think our system would be roughly the same cost per year as gas or slightly more, with it we save £200 per year or so I think. (This would be a very long payback time but there was a fully funded scheme we used).

If it helps anyone we are in Scotland and get average COP=2.9

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Introduce a Speed Maximum
Bucky2y90

In the UK there is a non-binding but generally observed rule that speed cameras allow you to drive 10% + 2mph above the speed limit(e.g. 35mph in a 30mph zone) before they activate.

This is a bit more of a fudge but better than nothing.

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why did OpenAI employees sign
Answer by BuckyNov 28, 20232-2
  1. Someone in your company gets fired by a boss you don't know/particularly like without giving any reason
  2. You are mad with the boss and want the decision overturned
  3. You have a credible, attractive BATNA (the Microsoft offer)

These 3 items seem like they would be sufficient to cause something like the Open Letter to happen.

In most cases number 3 is not present which I think is why we don't see things like this happen more often in more organisations.

None of this requires Sam to be hugely likeable or a particularly savvy political operator, just that people generally like him. People seem to suggest he was one or both so this just makes the letter more likely.

I'm sure this doesn't explain it all in OpenAI's case - some/many employees would also have been worried about AI safety which complicates the decision - but I suspect it is the underlying story.

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Why not electric trains and excavators?
Bucky2y60

I work in equipment manufacturing for construction so can comment on excavators. Other construction equipment (loaders, dumpers) have a similar story although excavators have more gently duty cycles and require smaller batteries so make sense to electrify first. Diesel-Hydraulic Excavators are also less efficient giving more potential advantage for electric equipment.

  1. Agree that payback period is relatively low but possibly a bit longer than here - I’ve seen 3-5 years. The ruggedised batteries required for instance can be expensive.

Purchasers of new machines will generally keep them for 5-7 years which is enough to justify the payback but not to make it an obvious easy win.

  1. If you have to use a diesel generator you immediately lose a lot of your cost saving. It is surprising how many construction sites lack mains electricity.

  2. Many machines go to the rental market. In this case the equipment buyers do not get the benefit of the reduced operating costs. In that case the rental company has to sell the increased rental cost to their customers who are happy with what they are currently using.

  3. Total cost of ownership just isn’t the main driver of buyer decisions. This is already a problem with diesel-hydraulic machines - there are many ways to make these more efficient which would have a decent payback period but don’t get implemented because efficiency isn’t a key purchasing driver.

What buyers really need is performance and reliability (plus low up front cost). The advantage of electric is more difficult to sell for reliability because of a lack of track record so going electric is a risk. Users are also rightly concerned that battery range will not be sufficient on high usage days - batteries in current machines often claim a full day but not necessarily with high usage.

  1. Most likely route for electric in short term is for them to get used in environments where emissions are important (due to regulations or low ventilation such as mines) plus companies wanting to be/look green. This will allow a track record to build up which will give more confidence to buyers.

I suspect the most useful thing a government could do (assuming carbon tax is politically infeasible) would be to legislate for low emissions in cities which would build the track record faster.

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20Fraternal Birth Order Effect and the Maternal Immune Hypothesis
2y
1
40French long COVID study: Belief vs Infection
4y
11
82020 predictions - Politics, Econ, Tech
4y
0
9What risks from vaccines?
Q
5y
Q
9
24Large Effects Can't Prove Small Causes
5y
1
112020 predictions
5y
5
28COVID-19 growth rates vs interventions
5y
13
50[UPDATED] COVID-19 cabin secondary attack rates on Diamond Princess
5y
5
16Why such low detected rates of COVID-19 in children?
Q
5y
Q
1
70Growth rate of COVID-19 outbreaks
6y
28
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