Bucky

TLDR; The Bogaert et all (2017) study which claims to find evidence that a particular protein and corresponding antibodies contribute to the FBOE has a significant problem which contradicts the main claim. (I had investigated the below a few years ago but didn’t publish anything at the time. Scott referenced...

Thanks to JustisMills and Ruby for reviewing this post. Any errors are my own. TLDR: The French long COVID study which suggests that belief in having had COVID is correlated with long COVID symptoms but that actually having had COVID is not correlated with long COVID symptoms used the wrong...

The results are in! Here are my thoughts on the non-COVID set of my predictions. (For detailed thoughts on the COVID predictions see Zvi's analysis) Questions, predictions, results and analysis below. Predictions are given as (Scott:Zvi:Me). Questions are strike-through if they didn't happen. My analysis is about whether my predictions...

I was chatting with friends about the Covid vaccine and they were concerned about side effects. I don’t expect significant side effects but don’t really have a principled analysis as to why not. What kind of probability should one assign to significant side effects from a vaccine, particularly long term...

Fast evidence assessment Recently I’ve been thinking a lot about how to assess evidence quickly. We usually don't have time to do a deep dive into everything we hear but there are quick intuitions which can be applied to get an idea of how much a piece of evidence should...

EDIT: Ha, just noticed that Zvi has done something similar, I’ll be interested to check another source. The need for comparison A couple of posts (1, 2) recently have shown how difficult it is to judge predictions without a baseline to judge against - calibration testing is the only real...

It’s been a couple of weeks since I posted regarding the growth rates of COVID-19 cases in various countries. Now, after these countries have implemented various control measures it is more clear how each measure effects growth rate. This post looks at the 10 countries with the highest number of...