First of all I should note that this post is just a guess! I have not run any experiments or anything. But anyways my guess for why rationality is not more popular is that the current expositions are super long! Yudkowsky's sequences are about length of the christian bible. CFAR's...
Quick quiz: which of the following is the definition of a rational agent? 1. An agent who follows the policy with the highest expected utility 2. An agent who follows the policy of choosing the action with the highest expected utility Are those even different things? In the case of...
Futarchy is usually formulated using multiple continuously running markets, which raises questions about how to introduce liquidity, when to introduce it, and who will do so. Robin Hanson (the inventor of futarchy) recently proposed how to handle some of these details, but they seemed to me a bit inelegant. I...
The motivation for this post came when I was reading various Scott Alexander posts on the Free Energy Principle, in which he seemed very confused about it (the title God Help Us, Let’s Try To Understand Friston On Free Energy might have hinted at that). I was intrigued but also...
In METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks found a Moore's law like trend relating (model release date) to (time needed for a human to do a task the model can do). Here is their rationale for plotting this. > Current frontier AIs are vastly better than humans at...
Consider the following argument made by Tim Babb: So every (non-American) reader is forced to either bet against the market or concede that their credence is at least 16%. However, there is an important 3rd possibility. Since the market cannot resolve before August, it could also imply that Polymarket has...