Cleo Nardo

This article is about: * How do we (more) safely defer to AIs? (Ryan Greenblatt, Julian Stastny) * AI 2040: Plan A, Alignment Roadmap (Ryan Greenblatt, Thomas Larsen). If you've read them, I'm impressed, they're both very long. If you haven't read them, you might be confused about: * Why...

What happens when humans put AIs in charge of civilisationally important decisions? A frontier AI company might hand over internal decisions (R&D, safety, deployment) or external decisions (government relations, public relations, philanthropy), or both. We might also see handoff by a government, by a coalition of governments, or by humanity...

Daniel Kokotajlo: To be clear, we don’t claim P will happen specifically. But when we wrote out our best-guess scenario month by month, P kept happening. Eventually we decided to just publish P. I’m at ~80% on P; my coauthors are lower. Ryan Greenblatt: I thought it would be helpful...

Summary I'm increasingly convinced that model access parity is a big deal and we are not on track to achieve it. By model access parity, I mean a small gap between (i) the model access for lab employees and (ii) the model access for external safety researchers, third-party auditors, and...

Over time, there might be an increasingly large gap between insider model access and outsider model access. By insiders, I mean employees at the frontier lab.[1] By "outsiders", I mean external safety researchers, third-party auditors, and other actors trying to make the future go well. I will call this a...

By default, I expect system cards will get worse, which would be bad. Some mechanisms could improve system cards, but I expect they will be outweighed. In any case, I think third-parties should focus on scrutinising system cards — this seems like a great activity for outsiders in the current...

This was too long to be a short-form, but it should really be a short-form. This notice is useful for people who've recently got into AI safety, who want to engage with the ancient texts (i.e. pre-2024). If you were around before 2023, then you probably don't need this. A...