Wiki Contributions


Anyone know where I can find some of the analysis and code that was done on this? Like Jupiter notebook or Quarto or  Google Collab or Kaggle or  something. 

Either the modeling someone used to make their predictions (including aggregating round 1 perhaps) or the models of what predicted success that was done ex post?

I want to use these in my own work, which I will share publicly. The big question I have (without having dug much in much into the research and methods) is 

suppose I had a model that was good at predict in the accuracy of an individual's prediction, as a function of their demography, their other prediction, etc. How would I then use that (along with everyone's predictions), to come up with a good prediction aggregation?

I started a [link post to this on the EA Forum]( to discuss if it makes sense over there. 

One thing I suggested as a variation of thi:

> B. Perhaps the 'agreement' axis should be something that the post author can add voluntarily, specifying what is the claim people can indicate agreement/disagreement with? (This might also work well with the metaculus prediction link that is in the works afaik).